With Kelly Slater closing in on his remarkable 11th world title a lot of big ASP tour drama is shifting to the massive race to make it into the Top 32 of the world rankings. With more than ten surfers either in danger, or in the hunt, interesting twists and turns are happening daily.

But a quick look at the world rankings is only half the story, because before surfers can gain any ratings ground, they first must backup any of their Top 8 results that might expire, as each result has a shelf life of exactly 12 months. With that in mind it's important to note that some surfers have much bigger holes to dig out of than others.

Here's a look at who's on the bubble, beginning with number 22 ranked Taylor Knox. After looking closely at the hill each surfer has to climb before any ground can be gained, I took the liberty of predicting the likelihood of them doing so. As you'll see, the current rankings are very fluid indeed.

22. Taylor Knox is 6,636 points shy of replacing the 10,800 points expiring before year's end. Probability: Low. He can't afford any slips, and needs one more solid result just to stay put, so he's in danger despite this ranking.

23. Patrick Gudauskas is 3500 points shy of replacing the 7000 that expire before year's end. Probability: Low. With two world tour events left, he's got work to do. Hello Santa Cruz.

24. Chris Davidson has a whopping 12,058 points that are expiring before year's end and very little in reserves. Probability: Low. But he's already in Round Four at Portugal, which means he's now only 8058 points shy.

25. Travis Logie is 2867 points shy of replacing the 5292 points expiring before year's end. Probability: Good. A win against Adriano de Souza in Round Three would have gone a long way toward getting him out of the hole.

26. Dusty Payne is 4,949 points shy of replacing the 9050 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Good. But if he doesn't get past Parko in Portugal on Tuesday, Payne will need another strong Pipeline finish to hold his ground.

27. CJ Hobgood is only 1750 points shy of replacing the 7050 that are expiring by year's end thanks to his strong reserves. Probability: High. Ceej needs one more quarterfinal in a Prime to stay put. Anything more is gravy.

28. Kai Otton has already backed up what's set to expire by year's end. Probability: High. He has a good chance of moving up from here.

29. Brett Simpson has 258 points shy of replacing the 3550 that expire before year's end.Probability: High. Brett also has a good shot at moving up the ladder.

30. Yadin Nicol has no way of replacing the 4626 points that will expire by year's end, but he will likely get the injury wildcard anyway.

31. Kieren Perrow is 6250 points shy of replacing the 8000 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Very Low. He blew up at Pipe last year. He'll need to do the same this time to survive.

32. Tiago Pires is 1159 points shy of replacing the 3016 that expire by year's end. Probability: High. Although turning lower after his Round Two loss at home in Portugal.

33. John Florence is 1691 points shy of replacing the 3941 that will expire before year's end. Probability: High. Being eligible for three world tour events (including one in his backyard) should help him dig out and climb.

34. Kolohe Andino (below right) is 1137 points shy of replacing the 2057 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. One more solid result could put him on tour, and he knows it.

35. Freddy Patacchia has already replaced the 4753 points that will expire by year's end, and then some. Probability: High. Having ripped his way into Round Four, and Hawaii around the corner he's ready to start climbing.

36. Adam Melling is 804 points shy of replacing the 3807 points that will expire by year's end. Probability: High. But after bombing out in Portugal expect to see him at the Prime in Santa Cruz.

37. Dane Reynolds has a whopping 12,500 points to replace before year's end and no motivation to do so. Probability: Very Low: Don't fret, there will be more Yellow Teeth giveaways on his blog.

38. Tanner Gudauskas is 1857 points shy of replacing the 4114 that will expire by year's end Probability: Good. He cant' be counted out being that he's been on a tear lately.

39. Daniel Ross is 3474 points shy of replacing the 7074 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. He's a battler with multiple shots. That said, he's got serious ground to make up.

40. William Cardoso is 2177 points shy of replacing the 3503 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Low. But he shouldn't be taken lightly.

41. Thiago Camarao (right) is only 168 points shy of replacing the 868 that will expire by year's end. Probability: High. He's a real threat with a strong chance to climb.

42. Jesse Mendes is 1157 points shy of replacing the 3557 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. He still has ground to make up but look out for this kid in 2012.

43. Cory Lopez is 4560 points shy of replacing the 6417 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Low. The odds certainly aren't in his favor, but Cory being Cory and all, he's still a dark horse worth watching.

Upon further examination, the aforementioned surfers fall into one of four categories:
1. On shaky ground: Though currently in qualifying positions, Taylor Knox, Chris Davidson, Patrick Gudauskas, Dusty Payne, and Kieren Perrow are all in danger of sliding fast given the holes they're in.
2. Holding steady: Travis Logie, CJ Hobgood, John Florence, Brett Simpson, Tiago Pires, and Adam Melling each have work to do, but are on solid ground.
3. Clear and present dangers: Freddy Patacchia, Kolohe Andino, Thiago Camarao and William Cardoso are ready to pounce and make the most of their opportunity.
4. Outside looking in: Dane Reynolds, Tanner Gudauskas, Daniel Ross, Jesse Mendes and Cory Lopez are long odds, but well within striking distance.

Less than two weeks after the new ASP rankings re-shuffle cut CJ Hobgood from the roster of the Hurley Pro Trestles, he got his sweet sweet revenge at the very next Prime event by winning the Billabong Azores Islands Pro yesterday.

The 32-year old Hobgood out-punted a much younger field, including an all out dog fight in the final against Nate Yeomans. The swell stuck around at Praia de Santa Barbara, and unfortunately so did the onshore wind. The tricky conditions made for some frustrating heats for many, even CJ wasn't able to get a score for the first 30 minutes of the final, while Yeomans built a solid lead. With time ticking, CJ reached into his old bag of tricks and launched a massive frontside air for a 9 to get him back in the heat, before backing that up with an 8.5 two minutes before the buzzer to claim victory.

After the win CJ talked about rebounding from his recent fall off tour:

"I want to improve on my surfing and these kids that are on tour are doing airs all the time so I wanted to pull that into my game a little more. I don't know what it looked like but I was just trying to change stuff and mix it up."

CJ is no stranger to the air, as one of the leaders of the aerial movement back in the Momentum II era (back when Taylor Steele still made surf videos). World champion in 2001 and perennial title contender, CJ is among the bunch of surfers on tour that are in danger of becoming out-dated. (Note that Kelly Slater is not human and thus not subject to these rules.)

Faced with young punters like Gabriel Medina and Kolohe Andino who are doing aerial variations on every wave, even well rounded surfers like CJ are forced to evolve their surfing. Despite the notable disadvantage of 32 year old knees, CJ out boosted kids young enough to be his son to claim this victory. He even beat Kolohe in the quarterfinals yesterday in onshore ramps where Kolohe would have the clear advantage in repertoire.

Keeping up with the future of surfing seems to be CJ's focus at the moment, and rightly so, as at this point in his career it's the way to stay relevant, unless of course he wants to take up big-wave tow-surfing. Perhaps CJ looked at how Bobby martinez handled this situation and decided that updating his surfing and winning would be much more diplomatic than spewing f-words and pointing fingers.

CJ now moves to number 29 in the world, and will need to keep himself inside that bubble through Hawaii to qualify for next year.



ASP PRIME Billabong Azores Islands Pro Final
C.J. Hobgood (USA) 17.53 Def. Nate Yeomans (USA) 15.33

ASP PRIME Billabong Azores Islands Pro Semi-final Results
Heat 1: Nate Yeomans (USA) 11.23 Def. Jay Quinn (NZL) 10.67
Heat 2: C.J. Hobgood (USA) 11.46 Def. Thiago Camarao (BRA)

ASP PRIME Billabong Azores Islands Pro Quarterfinal Results
Heat 1: Nate Yeomans (USA) 14.23 Def. Miguel Pupo (BRA) 13.77
Heat 2: Jay Quinn (NZL) 12.67 Def. Leonardo Neves (BRA) 8.87
Heat 3: Thiago Camarao (BRA) 13.56 Def. Fredrick Patacchia (HAW) 11.40
Heat 4: C.J. Hobgood (USA) 14.60 Def. Kolohe Andino (USA) 10.94

The Billabong Pro Tahiti started with a bang today, as flawless 6-8 foot tubes funneled down the reef at Teahupoo with light winds, making for epic conditions.Round 1 hit the water early with 12 heats to run. Every single competitor got barreled today. The sun was out. The water was warm. Not a bad day to be a professional surfer eh boys?

Cory Lopez made the most of his spot in the event via Dane Reynolds' absence, beating Ace Buchan and Chris Davo in heat 1 to advance into round 3. Cory is regarded as one of the best out at Teahupoo, especially when there is swell in the water, and today was no different.

Bobby Martinez was the other notable absence in Tahiti and his replacement Travis Logie took advantage of his spot as well, taking heat 3 over Jadson Andre and Jeremy Flores.

CJ Hobgood gets heat of the day honors, posting 19.38 points to best world number 1 Joel Parkinson in heat 8, including a 9.87 for a gaping lefthander.

Kelly Slater nabbed a west bowl in the dying minutes to post a comeback victory over Dan Ross and wildcard Heiarii Williams in heat 6.

The forecast is looking great through the next 3 days, with a potential monster swell heading to Tahiti for the 25th. Round 2 will look to hit the water tomorrow morning at 7am. This is going to get interesting.

live here.

BILLABONG PRO TAHITI ROUND 1 RESULTS:

Heat 1: Cory Lopez (USA) 12.83, Adrian Buchan (AUS) 11.47, Chris Davidson (AUS) 4.67
Heat 2: Fredrick Patacchia (HAW) 15.83, Matt Wilkinson (AUS) 14.73, Taj Burrow (AUS) 13.27
Heat 3: Travis Logie (ZAF) 16.07, Jadson Andre (BRA) 14.40, Jeremy Flores (FRA) 11.73
Heat 4: Mick Fanning (AUS) 15.23, Gabe Kling (USA) 13.97, Tiago Pires (PRT) 7.97
Heat 5: Jordy Smith (ZAF) 15.36, Ricardo dos Santos (BRA) 14.47, Raoni Monteiro (BRA) 8.47
Heat 6: Kelly Slater (USA) 13.96, Daniel Ross (AUS) 13.07, Heiarii Williams (PYF) 10.47
Heat 7: Kai Otton (AUS) 11.47, Heitor Alves (BRA) 10.53, Owen Wright (AUS) 10.33
Heat 8: C.J. Hobgood (USA) 19.38, Joel Parkinson (AUS) 15.60, Adam Melling (AUS) 10.33
Heat 9: Taylor Knox (USA) 12.90, Alejo Muniz (BRA) 12.53, Bede Durbidge (AUS) 11.10
Heat 10: Damien Hobgood (USA) 13.73, Patrick Gudauskas (USA) 13.10, Brett Simpson (USA) 8.83
Heat 11: Dusty Payne (HAW) 16.76, Kieren Perrow (AUS) 15.63, Michel Bourez (PYF) 15.17
Heat 12: Julian Wilson (AUS) 16.50, Josh Kerr (AUS) 15.84, Adriano de Souza (BRA) 10.27

BILLABONG PRO TAHITI ROUND 2 MATCH-UPS:
Heat 1: Jeremy Flores (FRA) vs. Heiarii Williams (PYF)
Heat 2: Taj Burrow (AUS) vs. Ricardo dos Santos (BRA)
Heat 3: Adrian Buchan (AUS) vs. Gabe Kling (USA)
Heat 4: Owen Wright (AUS) vs. Adam Melling (AUS)
Heat 5: Joel Parkinson (AUS) vs. Brett Simpson (USA)
Heat 6: Bede Durbidge (AUS) vs. Josh Kerr (AUS)
Heat 7: Michel Bourez (PYF) vs. Daniel Ross (AUS)
Heat 8: Adriano de Souza (BRA) vs. Raoni Monteiro (BRA)
Heat 9: Kieren Perrow (AUS) vs. Tiago Pires (PRT)
Heat 10: Patrick Gudauskas (USA) vs. Jadson Andre (BRA)
Heat 11: Alejo Muniz (BRA) vs. Matt Wilkinson (AUS)
Heat 12: Heitor Alves (BRA) vs. Chris Davidson (AUS)

The wait is nearly over. The anticipation met with satisfaction. Finally the unveiling of Joe G and Globe's newest creation, 0000 (Year Zero).

I have been making sexual references about this film for a while now. Months that seemed like years.

Now we have a new trailer and a premiere date. Aug 3 during the US open, which is also the same venue as Kai Neville's Lost Atlas premiere.

With such films as Secret Machine and New Emissions of Light and Sound under their belts, you can bet this film is going to be the opposite of crappy.

CJ Hobgood is still looking for a major sponsor. Obviously navigating the choppy free-agency waters during this Great Recession is far from easy, but in the meantime the former world champion is making lemonade out of his lemons. He's taken the unusual -- and very admirable -- step of paying it forward.

Hobood has been dedicating a good chunk of his board's blank space to a non-profit called, "To Write Love On Her Arms," an online community that helps people battling depression, addiction, self-injury and suicide.

It's stated goal is to encourage, inform, inspire and invest directly into treatment and recovery. With an estimated 18 million Americans suffering from depression, and a full 2/3 of them going untreated, it's becoming a leading cause of suicide.

Not surprisingly, depression is on the rise in these tough times. High unemployment begets high anxiety, and the combination can be devastating on adults, teens and young children. Hobgood, like many of us, knows people who have struggled.

"We've all been there, or know somebody who has," He says. "But one of the biggest sources of help is having somebody to talk to -- a good friend or somebody else who can relate. That's what this whole thing is about."


The organization was founded by Jamie Tworkowski, a Florida surfer who grew up surfing with the Hobgoods. Tworkowski worked in the surf industry for a time, before TWLOHA took over his life. He launched it almost unwittingly back in 2006 when his friend Renee Yohe needed help. Renee was cutting and using drugs. She was being denied treatment by rehab centers because the scars on her arms were considered red flags -- she was too great of a risk.

So Tworkowski took her in, then wrote a story about her on his myspace page. He titled it "To Write Love On Her Arms" and began raising money by selling T-Shirts that carried the slogan. The page started getting hits from other troubled teens immediately, and a full blown community was born.

There are hundreds of thousands of members now. They meet at the TWLOHA site and post blogs, answer emails, and direct people to the suicide, depression and drug treatment centers. It's been getting huge national press, and is attracting a growing list of celebrities big and small to help spread the word.

"People sort of trip out on the logo," says CJ. "They're like, 'Is that a band or something?' They have trouble reading it. But when I tell them what it is and what they're all about they always react positively."

Hobgood says he first entertained the thought of doing something differently when he watched the whole Bobby Martinez sponsorship saga unfold a couple years ago. "I remember thinking if I ever got into a position like that I'd like to do something different -- that something like this would be fun to do. It's motivating in a whole new way to be raising awareness for a cause I believe in."

And besides, there are fringe benefits. "I really dig their T Shirts," says CJ.

Photo of CJ getting slotted by ASP/Cestari