With Kelly Slater closing in on his remarkable 11th world title a lot of big ASP tour drama is shifting to the massive race to make it into the Top 32 of the world rankings. With more than ten surfers either in danger, or in the hunt, interesting twists and turns are happening daily.

But a quick look at the world rankings is only half the story, because before surfers can gain any ratings ground, they first must backup any of their Top 8 results that might expire, as each result has a shelf life of exactly 12 months. With that in mind it's important to note that some surfers have much bigger holes to dig out of than others.

Here's a look at who's on the bubble, beginning with number 22 ranked Taylor Knox. After looking closely at the hill each surfer has to climb before any ground can be gained, I took the liberty of predicting the likelihood of them doing so. As you'll see, the current rankings are very fluid indeed.

22. Taylor Knox is 6,636 points shy of replacing the 10,800 points expiring before year's end. Probability: Low. He can't afford any slips, and needs one more solid result just to stay put, so he's in danger despite this ranking.

23. Patrick Gudauskas is 3500 points shy of replacing the 7000 that expire before year's end. Probability: Low. With two world tour events left, he's got work to do. Hello Santa Cruz.

24. Chris Davidson has a whopping 12,058 points that are expiring before year's end and very little in reserves. Probability: Low. But he's already in Round Four at Portugal, which means he's now only 8058 points shy.

25. Travis Logie is 2867 points shy of replacing the 5292 points expiring before year's end. Probability: Good. A win against Adriano de Souza in Round Three would have gone a long way toward getting him out of the hole.

26. Dusty Payne is 4,949 points shy of replacing the 9050 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Good. But if he doesn't get past Parko in Portugal on Tuesday, Payne will need another strong Pipeline finish to hold his ground.

27. CJ Hobgood is only 1750 points shy of replacing the 7050 that are expiring by year's end thanks to his strong reserves. Probability: High. Ceej needs one more quarterfinal in a Prime to stay put. Anything more is gravy.

28. Kai Otton has already backed up what's set to expire by year's end. Probability: High. He has a good chance of moving up from here.

29. Brett Simpson has 258 points shy of replacing the 3550 that expire before year's end.Probability: High. Brett also has a good shot at moving up the ladder.

30. Yadin Nicol has no way of replacing the 4626 points that will expire by year's end, but he will likely get the injury wildcard anyway.

31. Kieren Perrow is 6250 points shy of replacing the 8000 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Very Low. He blew up at Pipe last year. He'll need to do the same this time to survive.

32. Tiago Pires is 1159 points shy of replacing the 3016 that expire by year's end. Probability: High. Although turning lower after his Round Two loss at home in Portugal.

33. John Florence is 1691 points shy of replacing the 3941 that will expire before year's end. Probability: High. Being eligible for three world tour events (including one in his backyard) should help him dig out and climb.

34. Kolohe Andino (below right) is 1137 points shy of replacing the 2057 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. One more solid result could put him on tour, and he knows it.

35. Freddy Patacchia has already replaced the 4753 points that will expire by year's end, and then some. Probability: High. Having ripped his way into Round Four, and Hawaii around the corner he's ready to start climbing.

36. Adam Melling is 804 points shy of replacing the 3807 points that will expire by year's end. Probability: High. But after bombing out in Portugal expect to see him at the Prime in Santa Cruz.

37. Dane Reynolds has a whopping 12,500 points to replace before year's end and no motivation to do so. Probability: Very Low: Don't fret, there will be more Yellow Teeth giveaways on his blog.

38. Tanner Gudauskas is 1857 points shy of replacing the 4114 that will expire by year's end Probability: Good. He cant' be counted out being that he's been on a tear lately.

39. Daniel Ross is 3474 points shy of replacing the 7074 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. He's a battler with multiple shots. That said, he's got serious ground to make up.

40. William Cardoso is 2177 points shy of replacing the 3503 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Low. But he shouldn't be taken lightly.

41. Thiago Camarao (right) is only 168 points shy of replacing the 868 that will expire by year's end. Probability: High. He's a real threat with a strong chance to climb.

42. Jesse Mendes is 1157 points shy of replacing the 3557 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. He still has ground to make up but look out for this kid in 2012.

43. Cory Lopez is 4560 points shy of replacing the 6417 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Low. The odds certainly aren't in his favor, but Cory being Cory and all, he's still a dark horse worth watching.

Upon further examination, the aforementioned surfers fall into one of four categories:
1. On shaky ground: Though currently in qualifying positions, Taylor Knox, Chris Davidson, Patrick Gudauskas, Dusty Payne, and Kieren Perrow are all in danger of sliding fast given the holes they're in.
2. Holding steady: Travis Logie, CJ Hobgood, John Florence, Brett Simpson, Tiago Pires, and Adam Melling each have work to do, but are on solid ground.
3. Clear and present dangers: Freddy Patacchia, Kolohe Andino, Thiago Camarao and William Cardoso are ready to pounce and make the most of their opportunity.
4. Outside looking in: Dane Reynolds, Tanner Gudauskas, Daniel Ross, Jesse Mendes and Cory Lopez are long odds, but well within striking distance.

It's hard to fathom Taylor Knox taking an early loss at Jeffreys Bay. The world's famous righthander is perfectly suited for Mr. Knox-- Supers is Taylor made for Knox (sorry).

Yet if you've been to J-Bay, or even watched it long enough, you know that the small three-to-four foot days are by far the most dangerous to bet on any favorites.

While watching the edited down version of events (see vid) it looks, by any standard, like another perfect day in Jeffreys Bay heaven. Yet day two of the Billabong Pro was actually a struggle. Long lulls persisted throughout the day as Wedensday's swell faded. Two heats had to be restarted because neither surfer rode a wave during the first 10 minutes of the heat. That should give you a sense of how painfully long the lulls were.

And while J-Bay is an epic wave when it's over six feet. Anything under that -- glassy or not -- is a roll of the dice. You get very few opportunities to make your case, so you better pick the right ones and execute properly.



Unfortunately for Taylor Knox he had problems with both, and suffered an early round exit at the hands of France's Joan Duru.

Taylor wasn't alone. CJ Hobgood went down to last-minute entry Timmy Reyes, who's in J-Bay filling in for the injured Joel Parkinson. Both Reyes and Hobgood have been suffering from confidence issues of late. Reyes' is understandable. The guy's had a rough couple years on the competitive circuit. Injuries have hampered Tim, who's not all that convinced he shouldn't be doing the whole Greg Long thing.

Hobgood, meanwhile, is working through basic equipment issues. It sounds simple. But most pros today expect magic boards to send tingles up their legs on wave one. If it doesn't happen they freak. Back in the real world, however, they're all talented enough to make the worst board in Derek Hynd's J-Bay quiver work well. Let me break it down this way: Nobody loses because of an extra eighth-inch of foam under their feet.

Both Knox and Hobgood should be OK and survive the ASP's pending chop down. They both entered Jeffreys in the Top 20 but are likely to fall out of it depending on who does what. Damien Hobgood, Andy Irons, Dusty Payne and Brett Simpson are among those giving chase.

Meanwhile, it's starting to look like Ian Cairns pre-event prediction of an Owen Wright breakout is a likely reality. Owen came into this season with plenty of fanfare after his multiple Slater bashes last year. Though he hasn't lit the world on fire yet in 2010, he is sitting at number 11 in the ratings--which puts him on Rookie of the Year pace.

Wright's backhand attack is the perfect fit for Jeffreys. His tall lanky frame gives him all the leverage he needs to get down the line and crack the lip in a hurry. Whereas most guys are fighting to get from point point A to point B, Wright is actually throwing some authoritative blow tails in between.

His California counterparts, on the other hand, are fighting for survival. Brett Simpson survived a challenge from Jeremy Flores today--looking solid. Nate Yeomans advanced directly into Round Three after his first heat win, but had the misfortune of running into Jordy Smith there, where his run ended.

All told it's been a solid two days of surfing, and with more bumps on the horizon things should get even more interesting, especially with Wild Card Sean Holmes facing Kelly Slater in the next round.

Billabong Pro Jeffreys Bay Remaining Round 2 Results:

Heat 3: Sean Holmes (ZAF) 13.50 def. Jadson Andre (BRA) 11.07
Heat 4: Joan Duru (FRA) 13.83 def. Taylor Knox (USA) 11.50
Heat 5: Tim Reyes (USA) 13.34 def. C.J. Hobgood (USA) 13.23
Heat 6: Michel Bourez (PYF) 11.86 def. Blake Thornton (AUS) 11.50
Heat 7: Damien Hobgood (USA) 15.04 def. Marco Polo (BRA) 11.30
Heat 8: Jay Thompson (AUS) 18.33 def. Kieren Perrow (AUS) 14.47
Heat 9: Neco Padaratz (BRA) 11.36 def. Roy Powers (HAW) 10.93
Heat 10: Tanner Gudauskas (USA) 15.03 def. Tom Whitaker (AUS) 9.00
Heat 11: Brett Simpson (USA) 15.40 def. Jeremy Flores (FRA) 11.26
Heat 12: Dusty Payne (HAW) 12.83 def. Daniel Ross (AUS) 11.37
Heat 13: Luke Stedman (AUS) 14.14 def. Drew Courtney (AUS) 12.93
Heat 14: Travis Logie (ZAF) 13.60 def. Luke Munro (AUS) 12.00
Heat 15: Ben Dunn (AUS) 16.33 def. Pat Gudauskas (USA) 9.83
Heat 16: Dean Morrison (AUS) 15.84 def. Mick Campbell (AUS) 9.03

Billabong Pro Jeffreys Bay Round 3 Results:

Heat 1: Adriano de Souza (BRA) 16.67 def. Jay Thompson (AUS) 9.27
Heat 2: Adrian Buchan (AUS) 12.27 def. Travis Logie (ZAF) 11.80
Heat 3: Owen Wright (AUS) 17.00 def. Ben Dunn (AUS) 10.74
Heat 4: Jordy Smith (ZAF) 15.07 def. Nate Yeomans (USA) 9.10

Billabong Pro Jeffreys Bay Remaining Round 3 Match-Ups:

Heat 5: Bede Durbidge (AUS) vs. Tanner Gudauskas (USA)
Heat 6: Fredrick Patacchia (HAW) vs. Matt Wilkinson (AUS)
Heat 7: Luke Stedman (AUS) vs. Andy Irons (HAW)
Heat 8: Kelly Slater (USA) vs. Sean Holmes (ZAF)
Heat 9: Taj Burrow (AUS) vs. Joan Duru (FRA)
Heat 10: Tiago Pires (PRT) vs. Kekoa Bacalso (HAW)
Heat 11: Dane Reynolds (USA) vs. Neco Padaratz (BRA)
Heat 12: Michel Bourez (PYF) vs. Brett Simpson (USA)
Heat 13: Mick Fanning (AUS) vs. Tim Reyes (USA)
Heat 14: Damien Hobgood (USA) vs. Dean Morrison (AUS)
Heat 15: Bobby Martinez (USA) vs. Adam Melling (AUS)
Heat 16: Chris Davidson (AUS) vs. Dusty Payne (HAW)

GRINDTV Newswire via The ASP: BALLITO, KwaDukuza/South Africa (Wednesday, July 7, 2010) - A powerful south west swell brought on by the arrival of the highly anticipated cold front, brought with it plenty for surfers to contend with at the ASP 5-Star Mr Price Pro Ballito today.



Shifting peaks, crunching sets and cavernous barrels saw a few surfers shine in the unsettled conditions.

2000 Mr Price Pro Champion Taylor Knox (USA) shone brightest in his Round of 96 clash, the Californian's smooth, polished on the rail carves and critical in the pocket surfing, setting the tone for the day. Knox scored a pair of 8.17 and a 9.57 (out of ten) rides for the highest heat total of the event, a 17.74 (out of 20.00).



"It looks really playful out there but it's not at all, I went over the falls twice- I haven't done that in a while," Knox said. "The wave has definitely got some power but it suits me and I'm just happy to be here."

With a convincing heat win as well as VIP tickets to the FIFA Germany versus Spain Semifinal Match in Durban tonight, it was a great day in Africa for the Californian surfer.



"I'm extremely excited because I've never been to a soccer game anywhere," Knox said. "I'm still not sure who I will be supporting, I've got great friends in Spain so it will be hard not to cheer for Spain cos they're such nice people but if I had to make a prediction for the final, I would say Germany versus the Netherlands because they're looking so strong."



South Africa's favorite surfing son, ASP World No. 2 Jordy Smith (Dbn) managed to keep his board in one piece as he destroyed countless wave faces during his round of 48 heat. Smith's unrivaled power and control earning an 8.17 followed by a near perfect 9.00 for a brilliant barrel ride to end off the heat.



"I got to ride a new board today because I've been breaking a lot of boards lately so hopefully this one lasts for the contest," Smith said. "There are some gaping barrels out there but it is difficult to find a good one and if you do it's definitely a diamond in the rough."



Manfred Adrio (Dbn) surprised even himself when he came flying out of the highest scoring barrel ride of the day, posting the highest wave score of the competition so far, an excellent 9.83 (out of ten).



"That was the last thing I expected," Adrio said. "I took off on that wave and the only thing I could do was pull in. Luckily I had enough speed, it just stayed open and I came flying out, it was totally unexpected."



With some judges scoring it a perfect ten, Adrio cemented his heat win with a 15.16 (out of 20.00) heat total to defeat Brendon Gibbens, Lee Bisset and Remi Petersen.



"I've never had the highest score at any contest, ever so that was a gift, I'm really stoked," Adrio said.

Inspired by Adrio's performance, Rudy Palmboom Jnr (Bluff) put in some of his own tube time in the following heat, threading in and out of a wide North Coast barrel to earn the second near perfect score (9.17) of the day.



"I saw Manfred's barrel and I thought there definitely are some bombs out there," Palmboom said. "I got lucky because I saw this thing heaving at me and building down the line and I just went for it."



Palmboom defeated Klee Strachan, the pair eliminating Mbongeni Hlengwa and Syabonga Khoza.

Australia's Anthony Walsh looked polished in his round of 96 heat. Reading the wave intuitively Walsh unleashed some committed backhand snaps and controlled floaters to win the heat with a 14.43 (out of 20.00), advancing ahead of Allan Johns (Ballito).



Giving himself an early birthday present, Casey Grant who turns 21 today, secured a well-deserved first place finish over Andrew Banks. Grant's risk and commitment earned him an 8.17 (out of ten) as his top scoring ride, enough to see him advance in first place.



2006 Mr Price Pro Champion Ricky Basnett (Bluff) looked comfortable in the punchy conditions similar to those at his home break Anstey's, washing away his nerves with a win over David Van Zyl, Paul Canning and Stevan Rice.



Among those also advancing through the round of 96 were Matthew Bromley (CT) who took the win over last minute second place finisher Mathew Kruger (Dbn), Damien Fahrenfort (CT) who advanced ahead of Kyle Beach (DBN), Beyrick De Vries (Umhl) who did well to win his heat over Shane Thorne (Bluff) while Greg Emslie (EL) secured a well-deserved win advancing along with Kyle Lane.



ASP World No. 13 Chris Davidson (AUS) found himself in a tough battle against Shaun Jobert in the round of 48. The lead changing hands a number of times before Davidson edged out his local counterpart, the pair advancing into the Round of 24.



Eleven heats of the Round of 96 were completed followed by six heats of the Round of 48. The next call will take place at 07H00 tomorrow.

Tune in to East Coast Radio for live updates on the Mr Price Pro each day and if you can't make it down to the beach you can watch all the action live on the web at www.mrpricepro.com

Hide your girlfriend, be on the lookout for strange flying objects and tread carefully at your favorite watering hole, because the world's best surfers are invading Southern California this week for the Nike 6.0 Lowers Pro.

Thanks to the new world ranking system adopted by the ASP this year, more than 30 of the sport's Top 45 will be on hand, making it a boon for the hardcore surfing fan. Among those appearing are new-crew phenoms Dane Reynolds and Jordy Smith, rookie sensations Owen Wright and Jadson Andre, wonder-twins CJ and Damien Hobgood, Hawaiian cohorts Dusty Payne and his buddy Andy Irons, the three-time world champion, California carvers like Taylor Knox and Timmy Reyes and local boys Patrick and Tanner Gudauskas.

By pro surfing standards, this ASP Prime event is a second-tier one, but this year, second-tier events attract a lot more first-class talent due to the serious amount of precious ratings points on offer -- points that mean everything on the new "ASP world ranking" list.

The new ASP world ranking is based on points surfers earn at every level of the pro surfing spectrum, from the elite world tour events at the top (which decide the ASP World Title) all the way down to the lowest level 1-Star World Qualifying Series event (Star series contests range from 1 to 6 Stars, depending on the prize money and location).

Next year, a surfers' ASP world ranking will be the only thing that matters, because that list alone will determine who is eligible to surf in the World Title events when it comes time to refresh. And the ASP plans on refreshing multiple times per year.

As a result, mobility up and down the tour ladder will be supercharged, because every surfer on tour is now standing on a very greasy step.

So while job security at the upper levels will be much shakier, at the same time, a surfer won't have to wait an entire year to fix any troubled situation he gets in. The world ranking, unlike the world title ranking, will not be on the January to December calendar schedule. It will be based on the past 12 months, no matter which page of the calendar is current on the wall. Because it's constantly being refreshed, only the hottest surfers will be assured slots in the world tour events that decide the world title.

The pressure has never been greater on pros. While world tour surfers are scrambling to stay in the Top 32 before the mid-season hack down, they're also trying to keep their world ranking in a lofty position as a hedge against any slump.

For fans, this is all very good, as many of the world's best will be surfing a lot more often to keep their careers intact. Lowers will be the perfect example of that. Last year was great, but this year will be the largest pack of high-end talent to ever hit Lowers, and with 4 man heats through much of the event the excitement level will be through the roof.

What's more, thanks to the guys over at FASL (Fantasy Action Sports League) now you can add another layer of fun to this year's Prime events and select 6-Stars by playing a whole new version of their fantasy surfing game designed for Prime and 6-Star events. Each event is it's own contest, and trading just went live today, so you best start doing your homework.