With Kelly Slater closing in on his remarkable 11th world title a lot of big ASP tour drama is shifting to the massive race to make it into the Top 32 of the world rankings. With more than ten surfers either in danger, or in the hunt, interesting twists and turns are happening daily.

But a quick look at the world rankings is only half the story, because before surfers can gain any ratings ground, they first must backup any of their Top 8 results that might expire, as each result has a shelf life of exactly 12 months. With that in mind it's important to note that some surfers have much bigger holes to dig out of than others.

Here's a look at who's on the bubble, beginning with number 22 ranked Taylor Knox. After looking closely at the hill each surfer has to climb before any ground can be gained, I took the liberty of predicting the likelihood of them doing so. As you'll see, the current rankings are very fluid indeed.

22. Taylor Knox is 6,636 points shy of replacing the 10,800 points expiring before year's end. Probability: Low. He can't afford any slips, and needs one more solid result just to stay put, so he's in danger despite this ranking.

23. Patrick Gudauskas is 3500 points shy of replacing the 7000 that expire before year's end. Probability: Low. With two world tour events left, he's got work to do. Hello Santa Cruz.

24. Chris Davidson has a whopping 12,058 points that are expiring before year's end and very little in reserves. Probability: Low. But he's already in Round Four at Portugal, which means he's now only 8058 points shy.

25. Travis Logie is 2867 points shy of replacing the 5292 points expiring before year's end. Probability: Good. A win against Adriano de Souza in Round Three would have gone a long way toward getting him out of the hole.

26. Dusty Payne is 4,949 points shy of replacing the 9050 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Good. But if he doesn't get past Parko in Portugal on Tuesday, Payne will need another strong Pipeline finish to hold his ground.

27. CJ Hobgood is only 1750 points shy of replacing the 7050 that are expiring by year's end thanks to his strong reserves. Probability: High. Ceej needs one more quarterfinal in a Prime to stay put. Anything more is gravy.

28. Kai Otton has already backed up what's set to expire by year's end. Probability: High. He has a good chance of moving up from here.

29. Brett Simpson has 258 points shy of replacing the 3550 that expire before year's end.Probability: High. Brett also has a good shot at moving up the ladder.

30. Yadin Nicol has no way of replacing the 4626 points that will expire by year's end, but he will likely get the injury wildcard anyway.

31. Kieren Perrow is 6250 points shy of replacing the 8000 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Very Low. He blew up at Pipe last year. He'll need to do the same this time to survive.

32. Tiago Pires is 1159 points shy of replacing the 3016 that expire by year's end. Probability: High. Although turning lower after his Round Two loss at home in Portugal.

33. John Florence is 1691 points shy of replacing the 3941 that will expire before year's end. Probability: High. Being eligible for three world tour events (including one in his backyard) should help him dig out and climb.

34. Kolohe Andino (below right) is 1137 points shy of replacing the 2057 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. One more solid result could put him on tour, and he knows it.

35. Freddy Patacchia has already replaced the 4753 points that will expire by year's end, and then some. Probability: High. Having ripped his way into Round Four, and Hawaii around the corner he's ready to start climbing.

36. Adam Melling is 804 points shy of replacing the 3807 points that will expire by year's end. Probability: High. But after bombing out in Portugal expect to see him at the Prime in Santa Cruz.

37. Dane Reynolds has a whopping 12,500 points to replace before year's end and no motivation to do so. Probability: Very Low: Don't fret, there will be more Yellow Teeth giveaways on his blog.

38. Tanner Gudauskas is 1857 points shy of replacing the 4114 that will expire by year's end Probability: Good. He cant' be counted out being that he's been on a tear lately.

39. Daniel Ross is 3474 points shy of replacing the 7074 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. He's a battler with multiple shots. That said, he's got serious ground to make up.

40. William Cardoso is 2177 points shy of replacing the 3503 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Low. But he shouldn't be taken lightly.

41. Thiago Camarao (right) is only 168 points shy of replacing the 868 that will expire by year's end. Probability: High. He's a real threat with a strong chance to climb.

42. Jesse Mendes is 1157 points shy of replacing the 3557 that will expire by year's end. Probability: Good. He still has ground to make up but look out for this kid in 2012.

43. Cory Lopez is 4560 points shy of replacing the 6417 that will expire before year's end. Probability: Low. The odds certainly aren't in his favor, but Cory being Cory and all, he's still a dark horse worth watching.

Upon further examination, the aforementioned surfers fall into one of four categories:
1. On shaky ground: Though currently in qualifying positions, Taylor Knox, Chris Davidson, Patrick Gudauskas, Dusty Payne, and Kieren Perrow are all in danger of sliding fast given the holes they're in.
2. Holding steady: Travis Logie, CJ Hobgood, John Florence, Brett Simpson, Tiago Pires, and Adam Melling each have work to do, but are on solid ground.
3. Clear and present dangers: Freddy Patacchia, Kolohe Andino, Thiago Camarao and William Cardoso are ready to pounce and make the most of their opportunity.
4. Outside looking in: Dane Reynolds, Tanner Gudauskas, Daniel Ross, Jesse Mendes and Cory Lopez are long odds, but well within striking distance.

So what's the takeaway from the Quiksilver Pro in France?

The obvious: Gabriel Medina is a 17-year-old rookie who's blazed his way up onto the world tour fast enough to qualify during this year's first-ever mid-season rotation, proving in one fell swoop that: 1. He belongs. 2. He's made an immediate impact on the title race by keeping Slater from running away with it. 3. Which validates the ASP's new format, including the controversial mid-season rotation.

By taking down Slater this year, while Kelly is the reigning champion and current tour leader, years from now fans wont have to wonder what might have been. We'll be able to look back at the stats and see that a 17-year-old rising star got his shot at the sport's biggest legend before he exited stage left. No matter how you slice it, that's good for surfing.

While Slater's lead over Wright has grown, for now, Medina, has prevented him from breaking it open. And what's more, with Hawaii just around the corner, John Florence (another mid-season additio) may have something to say in the matter. All these fresh legs are keeping things exciting.

And let's not forget Julian Wilson, one of the five rookies who've been added to the tour in the past year. After squeaking in at the end of 2010 Wilson is just now settling in. But his above the lip antics are already raising the bar on everyone else.

But what was especially nice to see was how wide the age spread was in the quarterfinals. With Kelly Slater and Taylor Knox, the tour's oldest stars, facing down the next generation. Medina wasn't even alive when Slater won his first world title.

The ASP tour has never had a wider span of eras and approaches than. That, too, is a good thing. Yet it's also a very fleeting one that we should savor.

Of course all these different approaches do tend to complicate things. For all the positives the one drawback is the added confusion for judges trying to weigh it all on the same scale. There's some seriously bad scoring going on. And while a certain level of it is always expected, the volatility index has gone overboard of late, which is creating very valid concerns among the surfers.

The danger is surfers blaming all those problems on the new system, when in fact, the two are completely separate issues. To be clear, the system isn't perfect. There are tweaks to be made, but in terms of the show being put on for the fans, the ASP product is better than ever, and both the rookies and legends did a great job of proving that this week.

Chicks for free? Unfortunately the chicks will still cost you. But back to the money for nothing part, Fantasy Action Sports League has been offering free entry for cash prizes for all ASP 6-Star Prime events this season, and with the cancellation of the recent contest in the Azores, the cash prize has doubled to $100 for the Cold Water Classic California event which starts monday. Signing up and making a team is free to all, and for these prime events, you can enter to win the cash prizes for free as well. The O'neill Cold Water Classic Canada just wrapped up in Tofino with Josh Kerr taking the crown and Shaun Cansdell assuming the CWC ratings lead going into the final event in Santa Cruz. Looks like some decent swells are on the horizon, so stay tuned and make sure to assemble your teams. Its free, no excuses.

sign up here..

Reigning world champion Mick Fanning won the Quiksilver Pro for the second straight year on Saturday, defeating Kelly Slater, the current ASP ratings leader, in a final that was marked by a few bits of pleasure and plenty of pain.

Fanning managed to squeeze out of two huge barrels to take the victory, but it wasn't easy.

He lost his board after his first good one after getting caught inside by a huge set. But with conditions deteriorating rapidly during the final Slater wasn't able to answer back. The waves had been perfect all day, with solid 8-to-10 foot tubes making for some incredible quarter and semifinal clashes, but the magic broke down suddenly as the wind switched, and things got ugly in a hurry.

The big barn doors that had been open all day started slamming shut, punishing both surfers as they tried to burst through the exits. "It wasn't easy," said Mick. "I was luck to get that last one, because I took that one set on the head."

Nevertheless, the big tubes Fanning was able to find and make his way out of seemed all the more impressive considering how hard he had to work for them.

The victory is Fanning's first of the year, and it pushes him to third place in the ASP Rankings, yet he says, "I've still got work to do to catch those guys," Mick said. "They've [Slater and Smith] got a couple finals, so I need to keep going."

Of course, it was this time last year when Fanning's world title run gained steam. During the European leg in 2009 season Fanning took over the ratings lead from his buddy Joel Parkinson with victories in both France and Portugal, home of the next ASP World Tour stop. The obvious question now is whether Mr. Fanning has enough fire power for another European invasion.

That it's taken this long for Fanning to get his first victory of 2010 is rather surprising, considering how incredibly well he's been surfing all season. Up until Saturday he's had very little to show for his inspiring performances. After his strong performances at Trestles, many sensed a breakout coming.

Slater, meanwhile, looked masterful right up until the final, when he essentially got lost in the lineup. He defeated Michel Bourez and Brett Simpson on his road to the final. Fanning, meanwhile, did gave Slater some breathing room at the top by defeating Jordy Smith in the quarterfinal.

With the win Fanning was the only surfer to gain ground on Kelly Slater in the rankings. And you can rest assured that Kelly Slater is viewing the veteran two-time world champion as his biggest threat. Fanning, after all, knows how to close the deal. He's one who tends to go on hot streaks, and he's arguably the fittest guy on tour. All of those factors have served him well in Europe over the past few seasons.

There's no question there's a storm coming...the big question now is how much lightning in the forecast.

Results of Quiksilver Pro, France.
1. Mick Fanning
2. Kelly Slater
3. Brett Simpson, Ace Buchan
5. Jordy Smith, Daniel Ross, Michel Bourez, Kieren Perrow

Mick Fanning has gone back-to-back in France in 2009 and 2010, but he worked a lot harder for his victory this year. Defeating Kelly Slater in a tough final. Photos: ASP/Kirstin and Cestari