Joel Parkinson may have the world title in the bag, but if he's going to keep his winning ways going at Trestles the odds say he'll have to go through Kelly Slater in order to do it. Slater's total dominance at Trestles (where he won his debut event as a pro 19 years ago this summer, just in case you're counting) is almost beyond comprehension.

The following Slater stats were compiled by CJ Hobgood, who's currently sitting second in the ratings and undoubtedly hoping his buddy Kelly can help him slow the Parko express at Trestles. He has good reason to believe it can be done. Slater has won at Trestles three of the six times he's surfed in it. All three wins have come in the past four years. In 2006, the last year he didn't win, he finished 2nd to Bede Durbidge.

Translation: Kelly's made four finals in a row. He's riding a twelve-heat win streak after only losing three times there in six years.

Slater, en route to one of his three ASP World Tour victories at Lower Trestles. Slater's winning ways at Trestles began all the way back in 1990, when he won his debut as a pro.Photo: ASP/Keaton via Getty Images.

Adding to all this, Slater has been spending a lot more time in San Clemente with his girlfriend, Kalani Miller, so he's been surfing far more often at Trestles than usual. Rumors about Slater even buying a house in the area have been circulating for months.

Then there's the pesky little stat that rarely gets mentioned, one that ultimately sums the bigger picture of Slater's dominance. Even after Parko's recent tear in 2009, Kelly Slater has as many world titles as Parko has career wins. Chew on that for a while.

Slater may have a lot on his mind these days. Indeed, my sources in Kelly's camp have gone silent again. And given what I've heard from my reliable second-hand sources, that's understandable, because word is the ASP is playing hardball with the whole ESPN rebel tour thing. So in the near term could things get a little funky between Kelly and the judges? Stranger things have happened. I won't be the least bit surprised if the close calls don't go his way this year the way they have in the past. Meanwhile, Parko seems to be the annointed one this year.

All that said I'm playing the odds.

My not-so-bold prediction: Slater wins.

My wee-bit-bolder prediction: Parko finishes = 9th after losing to Bobby, Dane, or Damien Hobgood.

With all the talk of a pro surfing overhaul heating up there's never been more pressure on the world's best surfers to beef up their ranking. With what we know of the major deals in discussion anyone outside of the Top 10 stands a good chance of being sent back to the minor leagues. Coincidentally, with the 2009 ASP World Tour already half baked it's judgment time for all involved, pundits like me included--time to see how the Top 45 surfers are doing vs. my pre-season predictions (which comprised Surfer Magazine's Top 45 Review). So in this, the first of a series, I'll be reviewing ten of my calls (in order of how they finished last year), grading their accuracy, and updating my predictions with what I've absorbed over the past six months. Here's hoping you can put the info to good use. Enjoy...

Kelly Slater
Current Rank: 8th January Prediction: 1st or retired Accuracy Grade: C
Then: "Slater turned the clock back with his wiser equipment
choices to the years of his utter domination. He'll remain in this time warp should he decide to keep riding his new special blends..." Now: Um, yeah, Kelly got a little carried away with his boards, which I should have seen coming. Taking things to their logical extreme is a vital part of the experimentation process. That said, he proved me right in Brazil where he resorted to last year's model, leading to his only win yet. Oh, and he might still retire if the shit really hits the fan with this new tour thing.

Bede Durbidge
Current Rank: 11th January Prediction: 5-8 Accuracy Grade: B
Then: "Durbidge will be the leading dream crusher of any would-be contenders. This is likely as high as he goes though." Now: So it wasn't a bold call to say he'd drop. The only question back then was how far. To date it's further than I thought but I still feel good about ol' Bede's chances to raise my GPA in the back half.

Taj Burrow
Current Rank: 4th January Prediction: 4-8 Accuracy Grade: A
Then: "Taj's title hopes are dimming...if he can't figure out a way to beat the big guys consistently there's only one way to go from here." Now: Though he's beat Dane Reynolds twice (once in an elimination round) his losses are to Kelly, Bobby, Sean Holmes and Adriano, proving my thesis. Taj is doing a great job picking on lesser talents, but nothing's changed. I'm sticking to my guns.

Joel Parkinson
Current Rank: 1st January Prediction: 1-4 Accuracy Grade: A
Then: "Parko seems the most determined to get reacquainted with the winner's circle, which he must do if he's to get where people think he belongs...at the top. His seven Round One wins, and 94% win rate vs. wild cards and the bottom half of the board point to a breakout." Now: Can I get an Amen? Man, I should have doubled down on this one. Parko will not melt down this year.

C.J. Hobgood
Current Rank: 2nd January Prediction: 5-10 Accuracy Grade: B+
Then: "While many have overlooked him for the flashier new arrivals,
and will continue to do so, his familiarity with how to win makes him a
viable dark horse for the title." Now: I haven't bragged about a "B" since my school days, but this one is totally feeding my ego since nobody else thought Ceej would have an outside shot at this point. Granted, he's a long way from catching Parko, but his number two ranking certainly puts him in the "viable dark horse" zone. He exceeded my expectations so much I need him to pull back just to improve my GPA.

Ace Buchan
Current Rank: 23rd; Injured January Prediction: 5-10 Accuracy: D
Then: "If you want to nutshell this guy, think of him as Australia's answer to Bobby Martinez, with a feisty competitive streak. He's that good." Now: Injuries suck. Ace's setback came right as he was making a good push, so this one hurts.

Adriano De Souza
Current Rank: 3rd January Prediction: 7-12 Accuracy: B
Then: "Adriano lacks the progressive repertoire of his young peers, but makes up for it in sheer determination. He'll be the most dangerous Brazilian surfer on tour for years to come." Now: Adriano may need not be worried about being excluded from any new rebel tour. His rank should protect him, and as Brazil's best and brightest he'll likely be a selling point in "international distribution" of TV rights.

Mick Fanning
Current Rank: 7th January Prediction: 1-4 Accuracy: B
Then: "Lower media glare means he can get back to the business of winning, which he knows well. His surfing remains perfect, yet perfectly predictable. He'll be looking to change that." Now: While the results don't show it yet, Mick is looking incredibly sharp. He's been mixing in some big aerials, too. A return to the winners circle is coming. Patience.

Jeremy Flores
Prediction 7-12 Currently: 16th Accuracy: B
Then: "Jeremy proved us dead wrong during his rookie year when I said he'd struggle to hang on...He will have a tough time climbing without adding more authority and punctuation to his moves, which will take time, but don't be surprised if he wins an event this year." Now: If a win is going to come it'll likely be during the European leg. If he gets remotely close my prediction should come through. Holding here.

Bobby Martinez
Current Rank: 6th January Prediction: 3-8 Accuracy: A+
Then:
"After suffering an off-season sponsor meltdown Martinez has good
reason to find tour religion again. If he channels his frustration,
look out. If he pulls a Rod Tidwell and remains too caught up in what
isn't there, look out below..." Now: Bobby's business blunders
slapped him with some real-world lessons in maturity. He gets it now.
And he's responding. Oh, and by the way he was THE best surfer in
J-Bay.

With the rumor mill in overdrive regarding the new pro tour being endorsed by Kelly Slater there's a lot of talk about ASP survival, the future of pro surfing, and what that future will look like. To separate myth from reality we managed to locate some of the key players involved at the highest levels of this project in their secret underground bunker. Naturally, they were hesitant to talk with all the delicate negotiations underway, but we bribed them with Twizzlers and Diet Coke, and got a couple to speak on condition of anonymity. Here's how they responded to our most pressing questions...


While Kelly Slater (center) is undeniably the primary marketing force of the proposed dreamier dream tour, the stated goal, according to GrindTV sources, is to draw much more attention and awareness to those standing beside him to better surfing's future.Photo: ASP/Victor Decolongon via Getty Images

Does Kelly Slater have an ownership stake in this tour?
Absolutely not. No single athlete, brand, or network has or will have an equity stake in this. That's the crux of this thing. It's meant to be bigger than any person, brand or event. It's about the sport. That said, if the league benefits and manages to make good money, the athletes who do participate will benefit from a profit sharing plan, the same way some employees do with the company they work for and the same way pro athletes do in other sports.

But Kelly's involvement is a must, correct?
Kelly is the most well known surfer in the world, and frankly, his involvement is crucial. Unfortunately, there are a number of other top rated surfers who aren't as well known and that must be corrected. Our mission is to make stars out of all the top surfers. The only way for that to happen is to bring top surfers competing head to head to millions of homes around the world on a regular basis. That's not happening now. So ultimately it's about getting other top surfers as well known as Kelly--because they deserve it, and an effective worldwide media plan will do so much more for them. Kelly understands that and that's why he's a big supporter of this tour.

Are you trying to make this tour work within the framework of the ASP?
Yes. Absolutely. We've laid out a thoughtful detailed plan to work with the ASP and trust that progressive minds will also see how this benefits the sport, surfers and the fans. It's no secret that for a long time Surfing has lagged behind other major sports in media coverage. We're going to bring professional surfing to the same level as the top level of other major sports. We have enormous passion to make the tour great because Surfing is an iconic global sport with passionate and participatory audience and Surfers are incredibly gifted charismatic athletes, and surfing deserves a world class platform for the very top surfers to compete in a thrilling format with best of breed production and widespread global distribution. We have a team that will take will take surfing to new levels. Every member of the team is at the top of his or her field in media development, marketing and distribution. We've got every angle lined up from Television, web, digital media, mobile delivery, marketing, etc. While we respect the brands history, passion and commitment to pro surfing, for the sport to now make the big leap, it will require a strategy and execution like other major worldwide sports.

Can the winner of this tour really be considered a world champion if the field is limited to such a small amount of surfers?
One fascinating stat we've uncovered is that the world champion in any year almost always finished in the top ten the previous year. So there are only about ten surfers in the world who are likely to win the world championship in any given year. Our goal is to make sure we not only have those guys but the world's best up and comers who can challenge the proven top performers. And unlike the way the tour is set up today, where top surfers may not surf frequently, our tour is structured so they will. So yeah, anyone who beats the best guys on a regular basis is clearly the world champion.

Right now ten percent of the ASP field at each event is comprised of wildcards. Will you be opening that funnel up a bit to keep things fresh?
We're looking at 25% of the field being comprised of wildcards. And how those picks will be decided is up to the surfers on tour to decide. They have as much say in this as anyone. Ultimately, this is the surfer's tour. They care deeply about their sport and have progressive ideas on how to improve the competition, so ultimately their views will shape the competitive and event formats.

Will there still be a place for--even a need for the ASP if this tour goes forward but you guys can't make something work at the highest levels?
We support the clear path system so that the young surfer can see his way to become world champion. There will always have to be a feeder system that young talent can rise up through and emerge. The WQS and the Pro Junior Series are important competitions, and we think those tours will benefit a lot more as we're doing a better job at the highest level. Brands have an opportunity to make those WQS events and the Junior events even bigger, which again is a major benefit for all surfers.

But several guys who are on the World Tour today will effectively be sent back to the minor leagues.
As in any sport, the competition to play at the top level is fierce. That's the nature and beauty of sports. This tour will be smaller than the one today, so yes, there will be intense competition, which will create tremendous interest.

How will it fit with the farm system?
The surfers have expressed interest in a single ranking system, like they have in tennis, which will allow for more mobility up and down the ranks. And the rankings will be weighted more on your records vs. the top ranked guys, so winning a contest with nobody in it won't get you as far as winning one with a bunch of the best guys. That's something the WPS and the ASP will likely be enhancing, and we support their position.

Where are you in this process?
We're in the late stages to confirm all components. The feedback we've been getting has been very positive from the surfers, our discussions with the brands are progressing, there's substantial interest from global consumer brands, and there's a lot of enthusiasm from the world wide surfing community. We're also narrowing event locations. While wild speculation is natural for these situations, we hope everyone will wait until we unveil all the details so they can form their own opinions based on the facts.

For new tour organizers, it's safe to say some of the more delicate issues to resolve include getting the green light for star riders like Mick Fanning, the 2007 ASP World Champion, which is challenging since his primary sponsor, Rip Curl, has been a huge ASP force for decades. Photo: ASP/Jeff Gross via Getty Images.