Via GrindTV.com

Making the Grade? Time to Judge Our Pre-Season ASP Predictions
With all the talk of a
pro surfing overhaul heating up there's never been more pressure on the
world's best surfers to beef up their ranking. With what we know of the
major deals in discussion anyone outside of the Top 10 stands a good
chance of being sent back to the minor leagues. Coincidentally, with
the 2009 ASP World Tour already half baked it's judgment time for all
involved, pundits like me included--time to see how the Top 45 surfers
are doing vs. my pre-season predictions (which comprised Surfer
Magazine's Top 45 Review). So in this, the first of a series, I'll be
reviewing ten of my calls (in order of how they finished last year),
grading their accuracy, and updating my predictions with what I've
absorbed over the past six months. Here's hoping you can put the info
to good use. Enjoy...

Kelly Slater
Current Rank: 8th January Prediction: 1st or retired Accuracy Grade: C
Then: "Slater turned the clock back with his wiser equipment
choices
to the years of his utter domination. He'll remain in this time warp
should he decide to keep riding his new special blends..." Now:
Um, yeah, Kelly got a little carried away with his boards, which I
should have seen coming. Taking things to their logical extreme is a
vital part of the experimentation process. That said, he proved me
right in Brazil where he resorted to last year's model, leading to his
only win yet. Oh, and he might still retire if the shit really hits the
fan with this new tour thing.

Bede Durbidge
Current Rank: 11th January Prediction: 5-8 Accuracy Grade: B
Then: "Durbidge will be the leading dream crusher of any would-be contenders. This is likely as high as he goes though." Now:
So it wasn't a bold call to say he'd drop. The only question back then
was how far. To date it's further than I thought but I still feel good
about ol' Bede's chances to raise my GPA in the back half.

Taj Burrow
Current Rank: 4th January Prediction: 4-8 Accuracy Grade: A
Then:
"Taj's title hopes are dimming...if he can't figure out a way to beat the
big guys consistently there's only one way to go from here." Now: Though he's beat Dane Reynolds twice (once in an elimination round)
his losses are to Kelly, Bobby, Sean Holmes and Adriano, proving my
thesis. Taj is doing a great job picking on lesser talents, but
nothing's changed. I'm sticking to my guns.

Joel Parkinson
Current Rank: 1st January Prediction: 1-4 Accuracy Grade: A
Then:
"Parko seems the most determined to get reacquainted with the winner's
circle, which he must do if he's to get where people think he
belongs...at the top. His seven Round One wins, and 94% win rate vs. wild
cards and the bottom half of the board point to a breakout." Now: Can I get an Amen? Man, I should have doubled down on this one. Parko will not melt down this year.

C.J. Hobgood
Current Rank: 2nd January Prediction: 5-10 Accuracy Grade: B+
Then: "While many have overlooked him for the flashier new arrivals,
and will continue to do so, his familiarity with how to win makes him a
viable dark horse for the title." Now:
I haven't bragged about a "B" since my school days, but this one is
totally feeding my ego since nobody else thought Ceej would have an
outside shot at this point.
Granted, he's a long way from catching Parko, but his number two
ranking certainly puts him in the "viable dark horse" zone. He exceeded
my expectations so much I need him to pull back just to improve my GPA.


Ace Buchan
Current Rank: 23rd; Injured January Prediction: 5-10 Accuracy: D
Then:
"If you want to nutshell this guy, think of him as Australia's answer
to Bobby Martinez, with a feisty competitive streak. He's that good." Now: Injuries suck. Ace's setback came right as he was making a good push, so this one hurts.

Adriano De Souza
Current Rank: 3rd January Prediction: 7-12 Accuracy: B
Then:
"Adriano lacks the progressive repertoire of his young peers, but makes
up for it in sheer determination. He'll be the most dangerous Brazilian
surfer on tour for years to come." Now: Adriano may
need not be worried about being excluded from any new rebel tour. His
rank should protect him, and as Brazil's best and brightest he'll
likely be a selling point in "international distribution" of TV rights.


Mick Fanning
Current Rank: 7th January Prediction: 1-4 Accuracy: B
Then:
"Lower media glare means he can get back to the business of winning,
which he knows well. His surfing remains perfect, yet perfectly
predictable. He'll be looking to change that." Now:
While the results don't show it yet, Mick is looking incredibly sharp.
He's been mixing in some big aerials, too. A return to the winners
circle is coming. Patience.

Jeremy Flores
Prediction 7-12 Currently: 16th Accuracy: B
Then:
"Jeremy proved us dead wrong during his rookie year when I said he'd
struggle to hang on...He will have a tough time climbing without adding
more authority and punctuation to his moves, which will take time, but
don't be surprised if he wins an event this year." Now:
If a win is going to come it'll likely be during the European leg. If
he gets remotely close my prediction should come through. Holding here.


Bobby Martinez
Current Rank: 6th January Prediction: 3-8 Accuracy: A+
Then:
"After suffering an off-season sponsor meltdown Martinez has good
reason to find tour religion again. If he channels his frustration,
look out. If he pulls a Rod Tidwell and remains too caught up in what
isn't there, look out below..." Now: Bobby's business blunders
slapped him with some real-world lessons in maturity. He gets it now.
And he's responding. Oh, and by the way he was THE best surfer in
J-Bay.


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