Things are looking a little slower in the North Pacific for the next couple of days… but I’m starting to get the feeling that it is just sort of gathering itself up for another attack… and not getting ready to let up on this amazing winter.For worldwide surf forecasts and reports go to www.magicseaweed.com
If you are in Hawaii or anywhere along the West Coast you already know that both regions had some solid WNW-NW swells kicking some ass over the weekend. Hawaii was once again ridiculously huge (though I am not even sure it registers for people over there anymore)… and California was large enough (almost too big) to run the Mavericks contest. If you haven't seen them, you can check out some of the amazing shots from the contest right HERE
The swells that generated these waves held into the early part of this week but will be slowly backing down as we move through the next few days… and for once this winter it looks like we aren't going to have a swell right on deck behind the current one… so the surf will actually drop into more small/playful sizes (particularly along the West Coast) as we get close to the end of the week.
Further out… like I said in the first paragraph… it looks like the Ol' North Pacific Storm Track is going to be right back to its winter tricks pretty quickly. There is already a new, intense looking, complex-low-pressure forming just under the Aleutians that is going to set the stage for a whole new round of WNW-NW swells for both Hawaii and the West Coast and it looks like some bad-weather as well.
Here is a shot of that new Complex-Low-Pressure from the GOES/NOAA visible satellites…
And this is what it is going to be producing over the next 3-4 days…
At this point it looks like a whole new surge of NW-NNW swell will hit the Hawaiian Islands starting later Tuesday and holding through Thursday. This one doesn't look particularly clean, but it will be good for a bunch of double-triple overhead waves… and the potential for some bigger surf as the swell finally peaks late Wednesday into Thursday.
There is another solid looking front that comes right behind the first one that will probably get Hawaii back into 12-15' of deepwater energy with 15-18 second periods by the following weekend (Feb 20-21)… probably some cleaner conditions on tap by then as well.
On the West Coast we can expect the surf to fade over the next few days… getting progressively smaller as we head toward Friday, particularly in Southern California. Still the weather will be nice and if we start to dust off the big boards and the fishy shapes we should be able to ride something all the way through the end of the week. SoCal can expect overhead surf to hold through Tuesday and then drop to more chest-shoulder high surf by late Wednesday and then down to knee-chest high+ by Thursday and Friday.
NorCal will be bigger… still well-overhead to double overhead through Tuesday and early Wednesday… then dropping to head high and few feet overhead by Thursday… and possibly a touch smaller by Friday.
Further out… that deepening low-pressure under the Aleutians is going to pull a bunch of mid-latitude storms through our swell window… dredging up a bunch of tropical moisture as they push eastward from Hawaii. As they do they will start to really intensify, possibly setting up another, overhead+, WSW-W-WNW storm swell for Saturday/Sunday (Feb 20-21) and into early next week. Unfortunately it looks like weather will be on the way with it… check out the pressure/wind/rain chart for early next week…
Waves for that latest round of WSW-W-WNW storm swell could get back into the well-overhead range for most of the exposed spots with sets going double-triple overhead+ for the standouts along the North and Central coasts.
The South Pacific continues to show some weak signs of life… sending out some playful S swells for Hawaii and some very background pulses for California. This trend is going to continue throughout the week (less swell for Hawaii)…with a small reinforcement coming through Thursday/Friday. Further out there is a tropical cyclone over by Fiji that is going to go extra-tropical in the next 3-4 days and as it does it looks like we could see a stronger storm develop down to the SE of New Zealand… potentially setting up a better, but inconsistent, SW swell for around the end of the month. This still has a few days to develop but it will be worth watching.