Man I am finally starting to get stoked on the forecasts again. The last couple weeks looking at weaksauce storm production has been pretty brutal. It is one thing to endure the mostly crappy Southern California surf, but another to know that, It. Wasn't. Going. To. End.
That has all changed since the South Pacific has started kicking some serious ass and, if the latest the forecast runs are going to hold up to reality, it is going to keep on kicking for at least the next week or so, which means that waves are on the way and will probably hold on almost through till the last few days of September.
Still not seeing any significant storm action in the NPAC…but like I mentioned on the last forecast there is a little grinder of a storm coming off Japan that is going to help spark some life into some of the storm track. Check out the swell heights for the NPAC in about 4-5 days…
Now with the storm track more active it looks like it starts to erode the high-pressure changing weather for the West Coast and opening up the swell window a bunch. At this point I think that by next week, we are going see some new storm activity forming in the region…maybe enough to get some waves to Hawaii and at least the Pacific NW and maybe the rest of the West Coast as well. We will have to keep an eye on it.
Not much going on in the tropics right now. Looks like we aren't going to see any new tropical activity for the next few days.
The South Pacific has definitely become more active over the last few days…there has been a nice little, but well positioned, spinner of a storm that has been sitting just of the Coast of South America. This storm will be sending new S swell into all of the good S facing areas of the West Coast, basically from Point Conception on down. Look for this energy to move into Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico on the 8-9th, Baja Sur on the 10th, and Southern California on the 11-12th. While not a Huge swell it does post up some overhead surf for Central AM/Mex…and more playful shoulder high surf for everywhere else.
Further out…there is a bunch more activity brewing over closer to New Zealand. This storm is set to form in about 2-3 day and it looks pretty good for a couple of reasons. First it is pretty strong…probably 40-knots with 30'+ seas when it peaks…and it also makes a good northerly movement, which means it lines up more fetch for our areas.
If that wasn't enough this is only the first storm…the forecast charts are showing a bunch more systems following close behind the first that get to capitalize on "flow" or sea-state set up by the first storm.
These following storms come through and should set up a bunch more swell that will be at least as big as the first one, and possibly a little bigger, due to the position of the storms, which are both positioned in a more southerly portion of the swell window and closer to all of our regions.
These swells I expect to start arriving around the 15th…with the peak of the first SSW-SW swell (200-220) hitting on the 16-18th. The following S-SW swells (180-210) would arrive on the tail of the first swell, keeping wave heights going through the 19-22nd
…and that is just what is showing on the charts so far…there may be more lining up out past the end of the run…cross your fingers that this storm action can continue.
The Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Tuesday, September 14, 2010.