Not many changes between the forecast earlier in the week….though I hope that your arms are tired a bit from surfing for the last few days. The overlapping S swell (180-190) hit nicely this week lighting up a few of the better S facing breaks pretty much from Central America all the way up through Central California. Most breaks didn't get huge but it did get quite a bit bigger as you moved down closer to the equator.
It also helped that the North Pacific was starting to kick into gear a bit…with some NW windswell, and a bit of NW swell energy from up by the Aleutians, trying to break up some of the stronger lines.
The North Pacific….while doesn't have the power the SPAC does, is starting to get a bit rough around the edges with storms starting to show a little more life, better positioning, and just overall swell production potential. There is a mix of storm activity just below the Aleutians that is not just setting up a little WNW swell for the Pacific NW and Northern/Central California but it is helping to enhance the NW windswell that runs along the West Coast of California. We can expect a boost of NW west coast windswell hitting over the weekend and on into the weekend. Hawaii will get a little more tradeswell…but truly it won't be much of a difference compared the nearly constant stream of tradewindswell the islands get already.
Like I mentioned in the last forecast basically there isn't much energy in the water for the NPAC to make much surf on its own unless you are north of Point Conception, but spots that can pull in the mix of swells should do nicely with shoulder-head high surf for most of the week and some and some overhead sets that show at spots that can really pull in the legit combo.
East Pacific Tropics
Hurricane Frank just barely cleared a portion of his "wave-generating" quadrants (the NE/SE ones) into our swell SW swell window. Unfortunately it also is showing that Frank is going to weaken significantly as he moves into a little better position.
Even with the weakening the last part of Frank's life is taking a pretty good track, so I don't want to count tropical swell out completely. At this point I think we can expect a mild waist-high…maybe chest high SE swell at the really, really, really exposed spots…some of the initial energy would show late Sunday night and more on Monday (Aug 30). Like I said in the short range, I don't think he will produce much…but the spots with S and SE exposure may have a little more consistency to the sets.
The SPAC is still going to keep a few waves rolling our way for the next several days…the bigger S-SSW swell will be fading out over the weekend but it looks like some small reinforcing swells will move in late Sunday, but mostly Monday and Tuesday, to help the surf from dropping too fast.
It won't be very exciting next week, unless hurricane Frank does something spectacular (don't hold your breath). There will be a few small pulses of S swell (180-190) that hit/peak on Aug 29-30, and some weak SW swell that is going to get shredded as it passes through the South Pacific Islands…but will be pushing in some soft, inconsistent, energy around the middle of the week.
Further out about the only thing that is keeping me from nodding off is this storm system that mixes up later next week. It really is about the last image on the forecast chart so I am not putting a lot of faith in it…but still if it pulled something like this off it would pump up some better positioned S-SSW swell for around September 8-10th or so.
Like I said a long ways off…we will just have to keep an eye on it.
The Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, August 30, 2010.