There is good news and bad news…the bad news is that the high-pressure in the North Pacific is getting bigger, it has grown a Mohawk, and it will probably gets its nipples pierced at some point. He is also being a bit of a pain in the ass that is shutting down the majority of the storm track, effectively cutting off any new storms from this region…and it has enough size that it has a lovely shearline pushing through the tropics that are shutting down most of the tropical storm activity…thanks a lot North Pacific…get a job or something.
Thanks to the high-pressure there are still no significant swells expected from this region…oh it ain't totally fat, but it does have enough windswell/tradeswell to keep the summer windswell spots from going completely flat. It also lets is in a couple of weird little storms on the edge of the high-pressure that keeps some minor swell at the NW facing WNW-NW showing at the standout windswell spots and some head high sets at the standouts.
East Pacific Tropics
Turns out TD 0-7e (Estelle) was just a tease (I mean with a name like Estelle how could you not be) and it has already fallen apart. It looks like the next run of tropical content is going to take a while to develop.
No new storms expect for the next few days…
The South Pacific
Compared to the rest of the Pacific the SPAC is part city. Sure the high-pressure twins have been sitting on the storm track but they have managed to stumble/melt out of position on their swell blocking barstools long enough for us to order up a couple of back to back swells for the West Coast and and a smaller chaser that will help keep wave heights rolling in through almost the middle end of August.
We managed to get a nice complex low-pressure down along the higher latitudes along Chile. This complex low eroded a lot of the El Guapo high-pressure and has set some fairly storm activity slip in back to back in the gap that formed. The main push of swell will be heading toward Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico but a decent shot of swell mix will be heading toward the west coast as well. The initial swell will be pushing into that region around the 17-18th and should be good for some over head surf. The West Coast (like SoCal) will be pushing in around the 19-20th but will peak with a smaller version on the 20th . Mainland Mex and Central America will definitely be overhead on the sets from this one…but north of the Border (and really most of Baja Sur) it will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with a few shoulder-head high sets.
The second swell, which arrives more around the 23-24th will be stronger…with consistent overhead+ surf for the well exposed areas in Central America and Mainland Mexico. The standout West Coast areas will be more chest-head high range while the best spots see some overhead sets+ sets sneaking through on occasion.
What is even crazier is that there might be an increase in WNW around the same time…granted it is a lot way off…but I don't know about you, but I am ready to get fall conditions rolling again.
Even longer out the SPAC is still showing some action on the long-period charts. If this can hold together we should be seeing some sort of rideable surf holding on all the way through of mainland Mexico. These waves are a way off…check back for more updates as we get closer.
Next forecast will be around Friday August 19…hopefully the swell will still be small in the morning and I can get a chance at getting something done before the new swell fills in.