West Coast And Hawaii Weekend Surf Forecast

Not a lot of changes since the last forecast—both sides of the Pacific seem to be following the forecast charts fairly closely, which isn't is necessarily a good thing for a few of our surf areas (like SoCal for instance). As we head into the weekend there are a couple of new storms forming, one in the North Pacific just to the N of Hawaii, and another in the South Pacific tracking NE from New Zealand through the Central SPAC.

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North Pacific
Our crappy little weather pattern we have going in the NPAC (you know, the one that basically feels like the worst parts of spring being pushed into our summer) continues to stick around for at least a couple more days. This means that Hawaii will continue to see some gusty E-ENE tradeswell and the West Coast gets more NW-WNW windswell as we head into the weekend.

This pattern does start to wobble a little bit. We have a little storm just off to the N of Hawaii that has put together some semi-decent fetch and sea heights considering that it is summer. The majority of this storms energy (and waves) will be heading toward Alaska and Canada.

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The storm itself isn't that intense but it does spend some time sitting in place thanks to the high-pressure off to the east, so it will put together a small shot of swell.

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If things hold together we would see this NW-NNW swell give a glancing shot of surf to Hawaii on Saturday/Sunday (July 10-11). Eventually this would track over to the West Coast, hitting the Pacific NW on down through Northern/Central California on Monday/Tuesday (July 12-13) before slipping a tiny pulse of NW energy into SoCal on Tuesday/Wednesday (July 13-14).

Hawaii, the Pacific NW, and North/Central California will all see about the same size swell—mostly chest-shoulder high surf with a few head high+ sets at the biggest standout breaks, maybe even a touch bigger if the spot can combo in some of the local trade/windswell. SoCal will be pretty weak off this swell, mostly waist high and below, but hey it is better than the nothing that the region usually gets from the North Pacific during the summer.

East Pacific Tropics

The tropics are still pretty quiet. Currently there are no new storms expected to form over the next couple of days, but there is a nice sized thunderstorm that is starting to pull together down by Panama and Costa Rica. It doesn't have any convection (spin) to the system, but we will want to keep an eye on it over the next few days.

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The South Pacific
Things will be a little quiet for most areas that rely on the South Pacific swell to keep the surf going over the summer. Over the next few days there will be a couple of weak S-SW swells heading for California and the rest of the West Coast that will help to keep it from dropping to complete flatness. Looks like a slightly stronger mix will move into SoCal/Northern Cal on Sunday (July 11) and then hold for the first few days of next week. Another slightly better shot of S-SW energy will push in around July 16th.

The storm track in the SPAC managed to keep some solid storm/fetch action going right off the coast of Chile, which is a good area for sending pure S swells toward Central AM and Mexico (as opposed to the more SW swell direction that would come with a S swell aimed toward SoCal).

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Basically this patch of ocean will help to keep solid surf showing in Southern Mex and the exposed areas of Central America easily through the weekend, and the first part of next week. It won't be as big as the swell that hit last weekend, but it will still be good for consistent overhead surf at the average spots and sets going several feet overhead at the standout breaks. The peak days will be on the 10th, and on 11-12th. Really I am not seeing much of a break in the storm activity lined up for this region, so it looks like consistent swell for the foreseeable future.

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Further out things are looking a little better for the rest of the Pacific, but it may take a few days to develop and then a week plus to travel up from the Southern Ocean. There is a decent sized patch of storm activity that is forecast to brew up to the SE of New Zealand right as a tropical system spins up to the N-NNE of the North Island. It looks like the tropical energy is going to bleed off into the colder, better positioned system, which will likely crank the intensity way up.

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If this forecast holds together this storm will develop in about 5-6 days and will have the potential to send a good sized S-SW swell to Tahiti and then some playful sized surf for most of the rest of the West Coast. This swell wouldn't push into the Northern Hemi until July (21-22). So we have some time before it arrives. At this point I wouldn't book any tickets or reshuffle your schedule, but it will be worth keeping an eye on over the next several days—cross your fingers, hopefully we will have another decent swell heading our way soon.

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Check back next week for the latest forecast update, cross your fingers that this new SPAC storm blows up!

Adam Wright
Forecaster
socalsurf.com