While my local beaches in Southern California—along with the rest of the S facing beaches of the West Coast and on down through Central America—have been rocking with the latest shot of Southern Hemi swell…the storm tracks in both the North and South Pacific have been pretty quiet. As we head through the week we can expect the S swell to drop off and only minor shots of S and SW energy along with some pulses of local windswell/tradeswell to help us limp along after it fades. Central America and Mainland Mexico will be the one exception to this trend…there has been a lot storm activity along the coast of South America that will be pushing up a mix of SSW-SW swell throughout the week and into the following weekend.
Over the next few days there isn’t much going on swellwise in the NPAC…Hawaii will see some bursts of local tradeswell, while the Pacific NW and the rest of the West Coast see some on and off NW windswell. Definitely nothing worth getting worked up about.
Further out on the forecast charts there is a little blip of a storm forming up that has some potential to send out some surf. This low-pressure is forecast to pull together in about 3-4 days just to the NW of Hawaii and then strengthen slightly as it passes under the Aleutian Islands.
The storm itself isn’t that intense…it is a pale, pale shadow of what a winter storm looks like…but it does spend some time sitting in place thanks to the high-pressure off to the east…so it will put together a small shot of swell.
If things hold together we would see this NW-NNW swell give a glancing shot of surf to Hawaii on Saturday/Sunday (July 10-11). Eventually this would track over to the West Coast…hitting the Pacific NW on down through Northern/Central California on Monday/Tuesday (July 12-13) before slipping a tiny pulse of NW energy into SoCal on Tuesday/Wednesday (July 13-14).
Hawaii, the Pacific NW, and North/Central California will all see about the same size swell…mostly chest-shoulder high surf with a few head high+ sets at the biggest standout breaks, maybe even a touch bigger if the spot can combo in some of the local trade/windswell. SoCal will be pretty weak off this swell…mostly waist high and below…but hey it is better than the nothing that the region usually gets from the North Pacific during the summer.
East Pacific Tropics
The tropics are still pretty quiet. Currently there are no new storms expected to form over the next couple of days…but there is a nice sized thunderstorm that is starting to pull together down by Panama and Costa Rica. It doesn’t have any convection (spin) to the system…but we will want to keep an eye on it over the next few days.
The South Pacific
Like I mentioned most of the focus of the last few forecasts has been on that S swell that cranked out of the Southern Hemi early last week. It hit all over Central America and Mexico over the weekend with some ridiculously sized surf. The S swell continued to track northward and finally moved into California later on Sunday, peaking through Monday, with waves showing in the overhead to well overhead range for the top spots from Santa Cruz through Orange County.
Unfortunately this S swell has started to pass its peak for all of the various regions and we can expect it to wind down as we move through the rest of the week. As it fades down to mostly leftover energy there will be a couple of weak S-SW swells heading for California and the rest of the West Coast that will help to keep it from dropping to complete flatness. Looks like a slightly stronger mix will move into SoCal/Northern Cal on Sunday (July 11) and then hold for the first few days of next week. Another slightly better shot of S-SW energy will push in around July 16th.
About the only region that will continue to see solid surf is Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico (shocker!)…the storm track in the SPAC managed to keep some solid storm/fetch action going right off the coast of Chile, which is a good area for sending pure S swells toward Central AM and Mexico (as opposed to the more SW swell direction that would come with a S swell aimed toward SoCal).
Basically this patch of ocean will help to keep solid surf showing in Southern Mex and the exposed areas of Central America easily through the end of the week, the weekend, and the first part of next week. It won’t be as big as the swell that hit over the weekend, but it will still be good for consistent overhead surf at the average spots and sets going several feet overhead at the standout breaks. The peak days will be around July 8th, again on the 10th, and likely another burst on 11-12th.
Really I am not seeing much of a break in the storm activity lined up for this region…so it looks like consistent swell for the foreseeable future…now if it would just stop raining (duh Adam it is called the rainy season for a reason).
Further out things are looking a little better for the rest of the Pacific…but it may take a few days to develop and then a week plus to travel up from the Southern Ocean. There is a decent sized patch of storm activity that is forecast to brew up to the SE of New Zealand right as a tropical system spins up to the N-NNE of the North Island. It looks like the tropical energy is going to bleed off into the colder, better positioned system, which will likely crank the intensity way up.
If this forecast holds together this storm will develop in about 5-6 days…and will have the potential to send a good sized S-SW swell to Tahiti and then some playful sized surf for most of the rest of the West Coast. This swell wouldn’t push into the Northern Hemi until July (21-22)…so we have some time before it arrives. At this point I wouldn’t book any tickets or reshuffle your schedule…but it will be worth keeping an eye on over the next several days…cross your fingers, hopefully we will have another decent swell heading our way soon.
That is it for now…check back on Friday for more updates on the new systems in the South Pacific.
TransWorld SURF Forecaster