The North Pacific continues to crank along this week…storms stacking up across the mid-latitudes sending out swell after swell both Hawaii and the West Coast.
Right now we already have some swell “in the water” (already formed and on the way) for both the Islands and for the West Coast… the first is already hit Hawaii on Monday and will fill in more on Tuesday/Wednesday. This swell will be pushing into Northern California on Tuesday and will peak Wednesday as well. SoCal will see a smaller version of this WNW’er peaking on Wednesday and then fading through the end of the week.
Forecast-wise we will see a couple of more storms form up over the next couple of days… on will be a little off to the WNW-NW of Hawaii and the other will pull together between Hawaii and California. As this happens we can expect another round of longer-period WNW energy for Hawaii filling in on Friday and holding into the weekend. The West Coast gets a little bit worse of the deal with the storm that forms closer to the mainland pushing over land. This will set up S winds and more rain across California and the Pacific NW as well as pushing in a combo of short-period W swell and long-period WNW-NW energy both of which look to peak late Saturday and on into Sunday.
The long-range charts are starting to get a little interesting as well… they are showing a real strong storm forming way out the back (possibly in the next 4-6 days). This system is another one of those extra-tropical mixing events that dumps a lot of excess heat energy into a mid-high latitude storm, which in turn cranks up the intensity and size of the storm.
At this point it looks like the storm will develop mostly around the International Dateline and then push eastward over the course of a few days, pumping out a large WNW-NW swell for Hawaii that would hit around the 10-12 of Feb—and then more of the same for the West Coast, hitting there on the 13-15th.
Like I said this one is a ways out on the charts, so it will take a few days to actually develop… but even with that in mind, it sure is nice to continue to see activity in the region.
The South Pacific is also starting to get a little bit feisty… forecast charts are showing some decent fetch forming off to the SE of New Zealand in about 2-3 days that will put together some of the bigger sea-states that I have seen in the SPAC all winter. It likely won’t generate a huge SW swell for the Northern Hemisphere, but it should be good for some chest-head high sets at the standout SW facing breaks in SoCal.
One thing to keep in mind is that this one does look like it will hit Tahiti pretty good… possibly in the 10-foot deepwater range (which is double-overhead+ at spots that can focus the swell) around the 7-8th (which is plenty large considering that it is the middle of their summer). Not sure how the winds will hold up since there is a lot of weather moving around the tropic/sub-tropical regions, so it might not be worth pulling the trigger on a ticket, but if you were heading to the region anyways (say to catch some WNW-NW swell) you might want to keep in mind that the S-swell spots will be working as well.
Here are the details for Hawaii and the West Coast…
The islands are going to get a solid run of surf this week and most of next week as a series of WNW-NW swells (290-340) push through. The next shot of swell actually starts to arrive on Tuesday and peaks overnight into Wednesday. This one looks good for nearly 12-14’ of deepwater energy but with fairly short periods (12-14 seconds) as the peak of the energy arrives…it is also going to bring some S winds on Tuesday and then North winds early on Wednesday. The winds shift more easterly late Thursday and Friday…just in time for another round of WNW-NW swell, again around the 10-12’ feet of deepwater energy but with longer swell-periods (closer to 15-17 seconds) as the swell peaks. This seems like the cleanest and most organized swell of the week/weekend so it might be worth planning on surfing around then. Further out it looks like another 10-12’ WNW swell arrives and peaks on the 8th…and then possibly a much bigger shot of energy lining up for Feb 10-12th.
New WNW-NW swell (280-320) moves in on Tuesday, peaking later in the afternoon and holding into Wednesday before starting a slow fade. This one looks good for well-overhead surf for the average spots and sets around the double-overhead mark for most of the standout breaks…a few of the really big spots will have some larger sets going 12-14’ faces at times. Conditions look OK for early Tuesday but a new cold front moves in through the day and we can expect light S-SE winds and rain as it starts to arrive. The swell begins fading on Thursday but the stormy/rainy weather will continue. A shorter-period, W-WNW swell (260-290) will arrive on Saturday coming up fast, along with more wind and rain, we can expect more surf in the well-overhead range with more double-overhead sets. This swell looks a lot less organized than Tuesday/Wednesday’s swell but there should still be some rideable waves at spots protected from the S winds. Further out it looks like a longer-period WNW-NW swell (285-320) arrives on Monday, Feb 7, and peaks on the 8th before dropping off. This one looks about head high for most areas and some sets going a few feet overhead at the top breaks.
Another WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts to filter into parts of SoCal late on Tuesday but ends up peaking on Wednesday. Average spots will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout NW facing breaks see overhead+ sets coming through on the lower tides. This swell will drop of Thursday, leaving us with mostly leftovers on Friday. A stormy mix of short period W-WNW swell and some longer period NW swell will arrive on Saturday, peaking on Sunday but it looks like more S winds and rain on tap for most of SoCal as well—it doesn’t mean every spot will be blown out, but expect water quality to drop and most areas to see sort of sloppy hacked up shape with a few nuggets showing at breaks protected by the winds. Next week looks a little cleaner and we will have more WNW-NW swell moving in around the 9th, with more on tap pretty much through the middle of the month.