By West Coast And Hawaii Weekly Surf Forecast
So a lake formed at the end of my street (around lunchtime on Monday)…not a puddle…a freaking lake. I halfway expected to see some boats going through it. Fortunately the weather has broken a little bit this afternoon and the water is heading out to sea (hopefully crafting some incredible sandbar for the next W swell)…but the bad news is that this is just the first storm in a series of intense systems that are going to pummel the West Coast for the next week.
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The timing of these storm fronts are changing hour by hour…but right now it looks like the next one will hit Tuesday night…and then another Wednesday night, which will only be followed by yet another (and probably the most intense of the group) On Thursday and into early Friday.
These storms are going to have a secondary effect…they are also kicking up a pretty solid W-WNW swell.
This W swell will peak Wednesday along the Northern and Central California coasts with nearly 20’ surf in the well-exposed areas. The swell eventually peaks down in SoCal Thursday and Friday…with a smaller but still healthy 10-15’ of raw energy showing just off the coast…and breaking wave heights of easy well overhead to double-overhead+ sizes along the well-exposed areas. Conditions are going to be pretty craptacular so don’t expect this to be much of a surfable swell…just a stacked up stormy mess for most breaks.
The swell eventually backs down as we head into the weekend but expect lots of energy to hold over for both Saturday and Sunday as the energy trails off. Weather improves slightly over the weekend but we don’t really get a dry day until Sunday. NorCal never really dries out…which might be a reason they have so many large trees.
Long-range charts are showing more storm activity forming North of Hawaii in about 4-5 days…this one looks like it might be able to get some swell into our beaches before it sends in another round of weather (don’t hold your breath) so there is a shot at some surfable waves as we head into next week…likely around the 25-26th for the West Coast.
Hawaii will see that storm develop off to the WNW of the islands, but track fast off to the ENE, trailing some wind and rain behind it as the tail of the front drifts over the islands. I do expect some swell from it, just not a big shot at this point.
Here are the details…
WNW swell (310-340) will fade out as we head toward midweek…there will be plenty of overhead+ surf thanks to the leftover energy (and some increasing tradeswell)…but it will have lost a lot of size compared to the weekend. The trend of gusty trades and sort of marginal short-medium period WNW energy will continue through the end of the week. A new short-medium period N-NNE swell will move in on Saturday with some well-overhead to double overhead surf for the well exposed breaks…looks like it will peak overnight into Sunday…winds don’t look great for this one but the could improve Sunday afternoon, before the swell starts to drop off too much.
Big, stormy W swell hits throughout the week…likely peaking on Wednesday and holding into Thursday before dropping off all that far. Current forecasts are calling for combined seas of 20-22’ (meaning the windchop mixed on top of the longer-period “swell”) which is pretty ridiculous…of course we will also be seeing S winds around 25-30+ knots so most of the exposed spots are going to be pretty trashed…and the big wave spots, like Mavs, that are pretty sensitive to a lot of chop in the swell mix are going to be a complete mess. The swell eventually starts to drop later in the week and we could see a marginal surf day setting up on Saturday as winds shift around to the N-NE. Water quality and the jumbled up nature of the swell will keep it from being all that good, but there may be a few surfable waves at the more protected breaks that can groom out some of the nastiness.
Tuesday will start off with new surf but not a ton more size…S-SE winds will be on tap for most areas, holding around 10-20+ knots at the well-exposed beaches. Look for shoulder-overhead surf at the W facing spots…but poor conditions on tap for most breaks. The W swell (260-300) comes up fast in the afternoon and will build steadily through Thursday, where it eventually peaks will well-overhead surf at almost all W facing breaks and sets going double overhead to possibly triple-overhead at the standout winter spots (see the projected size for Friday below). Conditions will be complete crap by then, with lots of SW-W winds in the 15-30+ knot range and even some gale-force 40+ knots blowing through some areas…and to top it off it sounds like we will have another 3-5”+ of rain flushing the SoCal toilet as well. The surf and the weather drop off as we head into the weekend…chance for some lighter winds and drier weather on tap for Sunday/Monday.
That is all I have for now…make sure to check the forecast later in the week…hopefully we will have some better conditions on tap for next week.