I’m sure this is not what you want to hear…(and I certainly don't like typing it)…but I am finally starting to see a little gap forming between storm activity. It isn't a very big gap…but it is enough that the surf will back off in most of our areas over the next few days. Fortunately the South Pacific is already starting to pick up steam again…so we should have more waves on tap as we head into next week…and probable through the middle-end of June. Hawaii is a little out of luck for the next week or so…looks like there isn't much moving through its swell window.
The NPAC has sort of a funky low-pressure sitting in the Gulf of Alaska that has been hanging around the last couple of days. It is funky in the sense that it looks pretty good on the visible satellite images…like this one…
But when you look at actual wind speeds…
…the storm is actually pretty weak.
The core of the storm might have had some 30-knot winds…maybe a touch stronger…but most of the storms fetch has been around 20-25 knots, which is not impressive.
Still this system did hold in place for a few days…and even had a couple of periods where the storm was tracking toward the West Coast…which means we will likely see some sort of swell from this storm.
At this point I am expecting some weak WNW swell and a stronger mix of NW-NNW windswell to move down the West Coast as we head into the weekend. NW facing spots north of Point Conception will be in the shoulder-overhead range starting on Saturday…with some bigger well overhead but spring-wind blown out surf hitting the extremely exposed breaks in the Pacific NW and far Northern California. These waves will actually hold into early next week and we should see some sort of larger windswell continuing to show for most of next week.
Southern California on the other hand is going to be pretty shadowed from this mix of swell…there should be a little NW energy (290-300) that leaks around the corner late Sunday and into Monday/Tuesday that builds up some waist-chest high waves at the standout NW facing spots.
The South Pacific is still active…but the storms are starting to flatten out into a more zonal pattern…which will limit some of the size/energy that will make it up into the Northern Hemisphere.
Over the next few days we will continue to see a playful mix of overlapping S-SW swells that show best down in Central America and Mainland Mexico…lots of spots down that way will hold in the shoulder-overhead range with some well-overhead sets sneaking through at times on Friday and Saturday.
By Sunday spots from Northern California and on down through Central America will see a jump in S-SW swell (180-215). The swell will be biggest down in the tropics…but it should still stay in the chest-head high+ range for breaks that are further northward.
Further out…we will get a little gap after the swell hits early next week…but the surf doesn't go totally flat…there is still enough fetch moving in a large circle around Antarctica that it will send out a near steady pulse of weak/moderate SW energy. We can expect some inconsistent but fun surf to show along the West Coast and some head high+ surf for Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico.
The next round of larger S-SW swell will push up around the 9-10th…nothing super exciting…some shoulder-head high sets along the West Coast, which is definitely better than flatness.
After that it looks like the storm track tries to get back to kicking ass and taking names…the long-range charts are showing a bunch of extra-tropical energy jumping up to the high-latitudes in about 5-7 days. This is good in a couple of ways…1. More energy for the storm track, which means bigger storms and bigger waves. 2. These tropical waves have a tendency to erode the high-pressure, which would allow the storm to make that all important move towards our regions, the more a storm moves toward you the better it is for consistent swell production.
If these storms live up to forecasts we would be looking at a gradual pickup in SW swell starting on the 12th…and then more size arriving by the 15th and possible a better-positioned and bigger S-SW swell hitting around the 18-20th. Check out the long-range charts…
These storms are still a long way from forming but it is always a good sign to see all of this new activity brewing up on both the weather and swell models.
East Pacific Tropics
The tropics are pretty quiet right now…looks like we won't see any new storm activity for the next couple of days.
That is it for now…check back on Tuesday for the next forecast update.
TransWorld SURF Forecaster