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The North Pacific continues to crank out storm after beautiful-swell-generating storm. All of our hot spots, Hawaii, Northern Cal, and Southern Cal, can all expect a steady stream of W-WNW energy hitting over the weekend and holding into early next week. The surf doesn't drop after that…oh no…instead it looks like a larger shot of WNW swell will hit just as the weekend's swell starts to drop off.
There has been sooo much storm activity lately that I found myself double-checking all of my forecasting data sources, I was starting to worry that the weather/swell models were stuck somehow and needed to be rebooted…or that I was being "punked" by NOAA and the National Weather Service (you know how those crazy guys in the government and the Navy are!) Fortunately everything is working perfectly and we are just getting an incredible run of winter surf. If I wasn't so amped on the surf I would probably be bored with all of this sameness…storm? Check. Winds? Check. Swell Window? Check. Swell? Check. Overhead with offshore winds? Hell yeah.
Anyway I won't bore you guys with too many of the details this forecast…here are the highlights.
1. Complex Low continues to dominate the Central North Pacific.
2. High-pressure is holding over the West Coast…likely cowering in fear of the big-ass low-pressure kicking the poop of the storm track.
3. Without the high-pressure to reroute the storm track some very intense embedded low-pressures have been able to spin through the mid-latitudes cranking out swell for everyone.
4. More of these storms are forecast to form over the next 6-7 days.
5. I might be calling in sick next week…uh yeah I think I am going to have the flu, pretty sure in fact.
I'm sure that you guys get the picture…so lets get on with the regional details.
Solid WNW swell is already hitting Hawaii…and will continue to do so as we move through the weekend. The overall size will drop a touch on Saturday, of course drop is a relative term, so instead of 15-20' faces it will only be about 12-15'. A new much larger WNW swell (300-330) will hit fast and peak on Sunday and into Monday. This one looks pretty solid…with deepwater energy in the 18-20' range…that is deepwater energy, not the actual breaking wave, which with shoaling could be double that height and maybe bigger at some of those outer reefs. Needless to say it will be large and in charge for the next 5-6 days…and if you are more of a "survivable wave-size surfer" you might want to hunt around on the lesser exposed sides of the islands to see if you can get waves off the wrap of this bigger swell.
The swell hitting Northern California is lagging a bit and didn't fill in all that much on Thursday…which means that the swell will be filling in more on Friday, eventually peaking much later in the afternoon, and then see overlapping reinforcements holding through the weekend and into early next week. This run of swell looks good for easy overhead to well overhead surf at the average/protected spots. The standout NW facing breaks will be seeing nearly 12-14 feet (slightly smaller than it looked earlier this week) of deepwater energy, which means spots like Maverick's could be pulling in some 20-25' faces on some of the big bombs. It looks like the winds are going to cooperate too…so solid surf and good conditions…man that is just crazy-talk. Look for the surf to hold pretty steady into early next week…and then a bigger shot of W-WNW swell filling in on Tuesday-Wednesday.
W-WNW swell (275-300) will start to arrive on Friday, eventually peaking late in the day and holding through the weekend. Expect this swell to push lots of the average W facing breaks into the chest-head high range and the top NW facing breaks into the consistent head high to a couple-feet-overhead range with some inconsistent bombers coming through on the best parts of the tide swings. Looks like Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will see the bigger waves but expect lots of breaks to be pulling in some fun waves all over Southern California.
Further out it looks like that following storm (that develops over the weekend) will have a pretty good-sized shot of W-WNW energy heading our way for Wednesday the 13th…with plenty of waves on tap as that swell holds through the end of the week. Weather looks great this weekend and into early next week. Winds will be cleanest in the mornings (even light/moderate offshore) but the afternoons shouldn't be too bad either.
Have a great weekend…get lots of waves!