It looks like the NPAC has finally gone into hibernation…poor little ocean it is all tuckered out from the winter. Shhhhh hopefully it will get some rest so that it can have a decent tropical season and then another great Fall/Winter.
Really though…there isn’t much happening in the NPAC…most of the storm activity is being smothered by high-pressure and the little areas of winds that we do get are either aimed the wrong direction, or blowing directly over us…Hawaii gets the trade winds and along the West Coast we get Springtime NW winds (and the coastal eddy).
So for the next week plus or so…we can expect a mix of weak local windswell and then pulses of bigger local windswell, but nothing really in the shape of a longer-period NPAC swell.
Funny thing about the South Pacific is that it takes so long for swells to travel from parts of our swell window that we end up talking about the same storm for at least a week…and even as much as 2-3 weeks if the forecast models have been nailing it. So since almost all of our near-future surf is coming out of the Southern Hemi…expect to hear me repeating a lot of stuff and showing the same sort of images.
Right now, this very minute, there is a pretty good sized S-SW swell heading across the Pacific. This was kicked out by this storm…
And here is a shot of the winds from the same system…
This new S-SSW swell (180-200) will begin to move into the West Coast late on May 4th…but then peak on late May 5 all the way through the 7th…likely holding some smaller but still surfable energy into the following weekend. Most S facing spots will see consistent chest-shoulder high surf from this one…but the standout S facing spots, pretty much just in Orange County, will have some sets going a couple of feet overhead as it peaks…the focal breaks (spots that really pull in this sort of swell) will probably have some bigger sizes at times.
The travel regions will actually see the swell filling in faster on the 4th…and mix with an already existing S-SW swell that hit a few days earlier. The peak of the SSW-SW swell (190-225) will still be the 5-6th…but these regions can expect consistent overhead surf at the better breaks and sets going several feet overhead to nearly double-overhead at the deepwater spots that can really focus this Southern Hemi energy.
Further out…after this first swell backs down there will be another, smaller, pulse of S-SSW swell (180-200) that moves out of the SPAC and heads up to both Central America/Mexico, and into Socal as well. This one will fill in more on the 9-10th but doesn’t look all that big…mostly just chest-shoulder high stuff at the top spots in Socal.
Even further out…there is another big red-blob pulling together in the SPAC…this one is a bit more zonal (moving west-to-east) than the previous storm…so more of the energy is going to be heading toward Central America and Mainland Mexico, but there will be some swell that makes it up to the West Coast and Baja…it will just be a bit smaller and less consistent.
Look for this next round of swell to move into CentralAM/Mex around the 12-13th…and Socal more on the 13th. This one could be pretty juicy for the travel spots…well overhead and bigger for the exposed spots. The Socal spots will be a lot smaller…more shoulder-head high…but with a few bigger sets a the best S facing spots. We will have to watch how this one pulls together over the next few days.