Who will win the 2002 World Title?

As the crowning of the world champion approaches, mathematicians, team managers, athletes, and fans try to do the math to figure out who still has a chance. So we decided to break out the trusty TransWorld SURF graphing calculator and break down the odds. (Disclaimer: Math is not our best subject so please bear with us).

As the ratings stand, only two surfers are in the running for the world title—Andy Irons (with 7,262 points going into the Rip Curl Cup at Sunset) and Luke Egan (with 6,278 points). So going into Sunset, Andy is 984 points ahead in the ratings.

Going into the quarterfinals, the worst Andy can do is 13th place, giving him 7,802 points going into the Pipe Masters. In order to knock Andy out of the number one spot, Luke needs to rack up a combined 1,823 points in the Sunset and Pipe competitions, meaning he must place at least =7th in the Sunset competition to stay alive. Even if he manages to place 7th at Sunset, that would mean that Andy would need to be eliminated early on at Pipe, and Luke would have to place first. The further Luke goes ahead of Andy at Sunset, the less points he will need to get at Pipe. But, all in all, it’s still probably a long shot. Here’s how the math breaks down round-per-round based on Andy’s finish at Sunset:

If Andy places =9th, Luke will need 1,883 points in the two contests and at least a 5th place finish at Sunset to stay in the race.

If Andy places =7th, Luke will need 1,949 points in the two contests and at least a 4th place finish at Sunset to stay in the race.

If Andy places =5th, Luke will need 2,015 points in the two contests and at least a 3rd place finish at Sunset to stay in the race.

If Andy places 4th, Luke will need 2,087 points in the two contests and at least a 2nd place finish at Sunset to stay in the race.

If Andy places 3rd, Luke will need 2,159 points in the two contests and at least a 2nd place finish at Sunset to stay in the race.

If Andy places 2nd, Luke will need 2,315 points in the two contests and at least a 1st place finish at Sunset to stay in the race.

Well, that’s enough nerdiness for now, check out the live contest coverage of the Rip Curl Cup Sunset event at www.triplecrownofsurfing.com/sunset/live_scores.php