T.S. Cristobal Continues Up Northeast Coast; Dolly Forms In Caribbean

Tropical Storm Cristobal, as of 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday, was at 35.2 north, 75 west, or about 30 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The storm has maximum-sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts. The tropical storm is slowly moving to the northeast at 9 mph and it has a central pressure of 1006 mb or 29.71 inches. Cristobal will continue to move to the northeast through Monday and could pick up forward speed later in the day or at night as it starts to get picked up by an upper level trough that will be crossing the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Dry air to the north of Cristobal slowed its development during the day Sunday.

However, latest satellite loops show convection blowing up to the south of Cristobal and closer to the center of circulation; and with warm waters of the Gulf stream and low shear in its path, it should continue to intensify through Monday becoming a strong tropical storm. If the center of circulation gets underneath the main area of convection, it could strengthen into a hurricane. Cristobal will continue on a northeast path toward the Canadian maritimes Monday night and Tuesday, probably passing just south of Nova Scotia Tuesday night and it could cause a blast of wind and rain across these areas.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Tropical Storm Dolly was near 19.6 degrees north and 85.8 or about 95 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Dolly is tracking to the northwest at 14 mph and has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars or 29.74 inches.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the border of Belize to Campeche Mexico. Tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the border of Mexico.

Atmospheric conditions continue to improve in the path of Dolly as an upper level low to the west of the system quickly retreats toward the Bay of Campeche, and latest satellite loop confirms this showing a blossoming area of convection just to the north of the center of circulation. Dolly will make landfall early Monday morning across the northeast portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and this should weaken the system some but the cyclone should move out over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon and could begin intensifying later in the day or Monday night.

Dolly will continue on a northwest track across the southern and Gulf of Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday and we feel that a second landfall as a hurricane is likely near the Lower Rio Grande Valley during the day on Wednesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure will be strengthening over the central Rockies into the southern Plains mid to late week and would tend to steer Dolly deeper into Texas or northern Mexico on Thursday and Friday.

Dolly will bring heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the day Monday and rainfall may be 4-8 inches. We are concerned that Dolly has the potential to cause damaging winds and life threatening widespread inland and coastal flooding across south Texas and northern Mexico.

Hurricane Fausto; Monitoring for Development

As of 8:00 p.m. PDT on Sunday, Hurricane Fausto was located near 19.5 north and 114.4 west, or about 375 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The storm is moving toward the northwest at 13 mph. Sustained winds are 90 mph with higher gusts. The pressure is 28.85 inches or 977 mb. Fausto strengthened slightly, however, it is expected to gradually weaken early next week. There is no current threat to land and the storm will continue to move west-northwestward through the weekend.

Elsewhere in the Pacific basin, there is a 1008 mb low that is being monitored for potential development. The low is centered near 95 west and 13 north and is moving westward near 10 mph. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is seen near the center of the low on satellite imagery. Favorable upper-level winds as well as warm water temperatures will allow for potential development in the next 48 hours.

For tropical analysis check out Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)