This is another one of those forecasts that start real boring…there is very little going on in the Pacific and we can't expect much to shake loose over the next few days. The NPAC continues to be pretty much shut down by the high-pressure while all of the storm action in the South Pacific continues to try and squeeze some storm action through another couple of pain in the ass high-pressures blocking parts of the South Pacific…with all this blockage…I think we might need to order some Metamucil.
Things aren't going to be totally flat…but even the best exposed spots are going to be small and soft.
The high-pressure continues to block the majority of the NE Pacific…storm action on this side of the International Dateline is pretty much down. The windswell continues to creep along the Pacific NW…sending in some steeper NW energy to the really exposed breaks from Oregon on down through Central California. Hawaii will also see a mix of E-ENE trade swell…but much like the swell along the West Coast…it is just basically the slop that we have to power through during the summer months.
East Pacific Tropics
Tropical Storm Estelle was a bit of a tease…she reached storm status late on Friday, tried to push toward the Socal swell window, and then fell apart once she began to move into a better position.
The storm managed to send up some minor surf to the really exposed spots in Southern Baja but other than that, she was pretty much at bust.
At this point, and you can see it on the NHC positioning chart, there is another little blog of yellow sort of holding around where the remnants of TS Estelle are supposed to be. It sounds like that this system might have a chance to reform, but the odds are low…less than 10-20%…that anything is going to happen in the next couple of days.
The South Pacific
Not much in the water or even happening (stormwise) in the South Pacific. This little quiet nap-time isn't going to last very long. There will be a series of storms grinding along the edges of Antarctica over the next few days…as well as some low- to mid-latitude energy…both of which will start to erode the edges of those high-pressures and by the end of the forecast run it looks like the combo of these warm/cold storms will break open a big ol gap and we can get back into the S swell producing business.
Once we get this gap to form we will see a stronger set of storms make the more important South-to-North movement that we need to send swell to the West Coast.
At this point we can expect a series of small S-SW swells, nothing much bigger than chest-shoulder high at the standout breaks are going to hit Southern California…all the way through the weekend and on early into next week. The travel spots like Central America and Mainland Mexico will get larger versions of those swells…coming through with more size and more power…more in the shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a few feet overhead at times. Look for this energy to hold pretty steady up through July 13…and then get a bit of an increase from July 13-15 as more energy arrives.
Long-range charts are a even better looking…
This bad-boy is supposed to form up on the tail of the first couple of fronts that finally get to break through the blockade of high-pressure. If, and this is a big if at this point, we could get a decent sized S-SSW swell (180-195) that would push in around the 23-25th of August (hitting the Southerly regions earlier and stronger). This could be a pretty solid swell…if it truly forms up this way…we would see overhead surf for California and the West Coast and well overhead+ surf for all the spots starting around Southern Mainland Mexico.
That storm still has about 5-6 days before it actually forms…so we have some time…make sure to check back on the Friday forecast to see how this system is developing.