Another good looking South Pacific storm has been moving through our S-SSW swell window over the last few days and has setup another round of S-SSW swell that will arrive next week. It even has a second storm trailing behind the first that will help to keep this swell rolling for a few days after it peaks.
This storm has solid 35-40' seas in that key part of fetch…and wind speeds running easily 40-50+ knots at times.
I am even seeing some pockets of 60-65 knot wind barbs in the center of that storm…that means this bad-boy had portions of fetch that were brushing nearly hurricane strength. Keep in mind that this isn't a "computer model" this is actual recorded data from the WINDsat satellite.
The second system is still forming right now but it looks like it is going to have a little more of a southerly angle than the first. Since this one is traveling right on the wake of the first storm it gets to capitalize on all of the lovely sea-state set up by the super strong winds. The second storm isn't as strong as the first…but it will still push a pretty decent sized swell that we can tack on to the end of the first one.
This S-SSW swell (180-210) will start to arrive in Southern California really late Sunday night (July 18) with some long-period energy in the 20-22 second range…this by itself won't put much new surf on our beaches…but it will show on the buoys. The main part of the swell will be arriving throughout the day on Monday (July 19) and will eventually peak Tuesday through Wednesday (July 20-21) before slowly tapering off later toward the end of the week…but it won't drop that fast or that much thanks to that second reinforcement of S swell.
Sizewise…Monday will start on the slow side…it will have a some new waves showing in the morning but the waits between sets may be a bit long. I expect a lot of chest-shoulder high surf for the average spots and maybe a few head high sets at the standouts…again it will be pretty inconsistent so expect to be waiting around for waves. By the afternoon the size will be on the way up…and we can expect some shoulder-overhead+ surf at the standouts by sundown.
As the swell peaks…(on Tuesday and Wednesday)…we can expect consistent chest-head high surf for the average S-SW facing spots along with some bigger overhead sets mixing in. The standout SSW-SW spots, mostly through OC and at a few of the other good summer spots as well, will have shoulder-overhead surf with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead. The best breaks (you know where they are already) will probably have some bigger waves mixing in…but that size won't show everywhere.
This swell will actually hit Central America and Mainland Mexico harder than it hits SoCal (like most of them do) and a bit earlier. That region can expect the SSW-SW swell (190-215 it is a little more westerly) to arrive faster throughout the day on Sunday…with the peak of the swell hitting mostly Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. The average S-SW facing spots can expect consistent overhead surf with sets going several feet overhead. The standout breaks will be well-overhead to brushing the double overhead range…while the best deepwater spots see some bigger sets mixing it up.
That is all I have for now…make sure to check the daily forecasts as this swell gets closer…and cross your fingers that this weather holds.