West Coast Weekend Surf Forecast

West Coast Weekend Surf Forecast; More North Pacific Goodness On Tap


Thursday afternoon screenshot, October 22.

Remember waaaaaaay back on Monday when I was forecasting that big NW swell to start hitting the West Coast? Well guess what…it is arriving right now. Check out the latest swell heights coming in from the CDIP group…(sorry this is my own bad photoshopping skillz not the great work that the CDIP/Scripps team puts together).

Anyways you can see that the swell is hitting the California Coast with some solid size today, particularly along the North and Central Coasts. Southern California is starting to feel this energy (I saw a few waves sneaking through on the C-street surf cams) but as you can see it hasn't quite really started to wrap around Point Conception.

Just to go back over this current WNW-NW swell (280-320+) for a second…it will peak in Northern/Central California on Thursday afternoon and it will hold solid in those areas through Friday…and most of Saturday as well but we will get into that in a second. I am already getting reports back from NorCal that this swell had Mavericks working at times…nothing off the hook…but still large enough to make me pee a little if I was sitting on the shoulder. Most spots up that way were running a consistent well overhead to double overhead with some of the more exposed breaks hitting double overhead+. Mavs was probably closer to 18-20' faces. I do expect some pretty similar sizes on Friday and Saturday, thanks mostly to a second storm that followed right behind this big one…helping set up the one/two-punch so to speak.

For detailed worldwide surf reports and forecasting go to www.magicseaweed.com.

The peak of this swell will hit SoCal more on Friday, hold solid into Saturday, and then back down slowly on Sunday/Monday. South of Point Conception we can expect more manageable sizes with chest-shoulder high surf on tap at the average WNW-facing spots…and some overhead sets at the standout NW facing breaks.

The peak of this swell will hit SoCal more on Friday, hold solid into Saturday, and then back down slowly on Sunday/Monday.

If you are more interested in how this storm spit out this WNW-NW swell you can check my last post…it has a lot more details at surf.transworld.net

Okay, onto the forecast part…
The next few days aren't looking very exciting for either the North Pacific or the South Pacific…sure there are a few fast moving storms that are going to power through the waters North of Hawaii heading towards the northern reaches of the Gulf of Alaska…but for the most part those swells aren't going to be very big, even along the North/Central Coasts.


We will also get a weird interior low developing over the SW desert that is going to twist around this high-pressure that has been giving California nice weather…so instead of borderline Santa Ana style flow we are going to a return of strong NW winds in the outer waters, particularly along the Northern/Central Coasts, that will crank out some steeply angled NW windswell (310-330)…and could potentially restart the Southern California Eddy, which would mean more southerly winds reminiscent of springtime compared to light offshores that we have now. Hopefully this won't be the case…it would suck to get the summer fuglies in the Fall…but it is something worth keeping an eye on.

Long-range in the North Pacific is looking pretty interesting (below)…on the 180-hour chart I’m seeing a very intense storm forming over by Kamchatka and the Southwestern Aleutian Islands. It looks to be another product of an intense tropical system going extra-tropical and colliding with a much colder frontal storm moving out of Siberia. This storm is still a solid 6-7 days from really developing but again worth keeping an eye just because of the swell models all drawing lots of pretty colors as it forms.


So just to recap…
Northern/Central California will see solid WNW swell (280-320) peaking on Friday, holding into Saturday and then fading on Sunday. Weather should be good for the next couple of days but building NW winds and cold front move down the coast late in the weekend and may start to hamper surf conditions.

Southern California will have a mix of peaking WNW-NW swell (280-300) hitting on Friday, holding in Saturday and Sunday before slowly fading into early next week. Minor SW swell will hold in the background and possibly keep things a little crossed up at the combo spots for the first part of the weekend and then trail off a lot more into early next week. Winds and weather look good but the building NW winds in the outer water will help to cool off our coastal temps and possibly even spin up a little bit of an eddy. Still we should get a couple of decent surf days before things start to shift around.

Have a great weekend…hope you get some!
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
For more forecasting treats, check out Adam’s blog at www.socalsurf.com