Nothing has really changed in the North Pacific…it is still pretty much shut down by high-pressure…with just some rough edges showing around the Aleutians and along the West Coast.
Basically we are just going to get a mix of weak energy for Hawaii around the early middle of next week, and a bunch of WNW-NW windswell for California/West Coast over the weekend and into early next week as well as some sloppy spring weather.
This is where the action is…
A good sized S swell (180-200) is currently hitting the West Coast…and if you are bored at work…uh…I mean amazingly attracted to surf contests… you can actually check out how this swell started to show down at the Nike Lowers contest… (this is just the first day…when the initial swell started to fill in…watch, as we see a few more days of contest shots the waves will get pretty decent sized…overhead+ or better)surf.transworld.net/1000104823/news/lowers-goes-off-dane-and-jordy-go-off/
So this S swell will hold for the West Coast as we head into the Weekend and it will be fading down in Central America/Mainland Mexico (since it hit earlier there)…but neither region will get that small thanks to more SSW-SW swell that moves in on Sunday and peaks into Monday. This one won't be all that big for California, but it does ok…with some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts. Unfortunately Socal will get a bit worked by onshore winds so it may not be that surfable around there. Mexico and Central America look both bigger and cleaner…likely shoulder-overhead for the better spots.
Further out is where things get interesting…a new storm pulled together over the last few days and is really starting to set up a large looking swell for the West Coast, Mexico, and almost all of Central/South America…South America will be a bit stormy, but the rest of the areas will get plenty of energy from this one too.
This is basically the South Pacific version of those "complex" low-pressures that we saw all winter in the NPAC…only we don't see them as often since we don't have a lovely basin like the Gulf of Alaska to funnel them into. This one is actually being fed by a helpful tropical system that is going extra-tropical over by Tahiti (we should send a card)…check out the sea-level pressure charts.
The colder storm is siphoning off a bunch of the warmer storms energy to help power up the winds along the surface. Besides making the colder storm more intense it also forces it to push "upwards" in positioning…aiming the strongest part of the fetch more our direction.
It also helps that since this is a complex system that has some more fronts moving around the core, each of which pours another dose of stronger winds onto an already formed sea-state…basically piling up swell on top of energy already heading our way.
Ok enough weather nerd stuff…lets get to the surf. This storm, if it continues to form the way the forecasts are showing (and the 24-48 hour forecasts are generally pretty accurate) then a large S-SW swell is going to be pushed towards…well everywhere along the east side of the Pacific…pretty much from South America up to the Pacific NW. This isn't really a Tahiti swell or Hawaii swell, because the action is so much further east, but Mainland Mex and Central America look like they will be pretty hefty…if you like large surf…it looks like it will be worth pulling the trigger.
For the West Coast…we can expect some really initial energy to start to pulse up out of the SW (210-225) on the 12th, but this isn't really part of the bigger swell, just some cast-off from the various storms as they moved into position. It will be good for some waist-chest high surf on Wednesday/early Thursday at the top spots. The main push of S swell (180-210) moves in with some looooong period (20-22 second) energy throughout the 13th…with the peak of the swell hitting on the 14th and holding into the 15th.
At this point it looks like most S facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some overhead sets. The standout S facing spots will be shoulder-overhead+ with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. The top spots, the real S-swell standouts, will be bigger…with inconsistent sets going a few feet+ overhead at times.
Even further out the long-range forecasts say the SPAC isn't done with us either…another system may spin up around the same position in about 5-6 days, which could have more S-SW swell heading our way for around the 20-21st.
Check back in next week, same bat time, same bat channel, (Tuesday) for updates on how this swell (and the following ones) will be doing.